Week 1 · Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · FOX
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Market line for comparison: PIT -3 · O/U 42.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Atlanta Falcons
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 8-9 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1496 | 80% | 1196.5 |
Scoring strength 353–401 points (-48.0 differential) → 42.5% expected win rate | 1448 | 5% | 72.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1560 | 15% | 234.0 |
Offense / defense split 20.8 PPG scored, 23.6 allowed → offense 1444, defense 1486 | 1429 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1502.8 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1502.1 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| ATL 2026 starting rating | 1502 | ||
Pittsburgh Steelers
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 10-7 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1532 | 80% | 1225.2 |
Scoring strength 397–387 points (+10.0 differential) → 51.5% expected win rate | 1511 | 5% | 75.5 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1545 | 15% | 231.8 |
Offense / defense split 23.4 PPG scored, 22.8 allowed → offense 1509, defense 1506 | 1515 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1532.5 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1524.4 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| PIT 2026 starting rating | 1524 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(52.2 / 400))
57.5% PIT
Model spread
52.2 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
PIT -2.0
Confidence band
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1495.6
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +6.5
- 2026 starting rating
- 1502.1
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 10–34 vs MIA−83.4
- L 0–30 at CAR−66.5
- W 22–6 at MIN+57.4
- 2025 final rating
- 1531.5
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −7.1
- 2026 starting rating
- 1524.4
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 6–13 at CLE−56.0
- L 17–31 vs SEA−54.7
- W 27–20 vs IND+47.1
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+30.0 pts
worth 4.3 points of win probability
PIT hosts at Acrisure Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 35 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
Rest
+0.0 pts
Week 1: both teams come off the same offseason, so there is no rest edge to give.
Analyst override
+0.0 pts
No manual adjustment. The number here is pure model output.
2025 head to head
These teams did not meet in 2025. Past meetings carry no weight in the model anyway — they are already baked into each team's rating.
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1495
average opponent rating · 18th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-3
- vs below-average teams
- 5-6
1509
average opponent rating · 11th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 5-4
- vs below-average teams
- 5-3
What the model does not know
- · Injuries, suspensions and depth-chart changes.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.