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Why Dylan Sampson is worth keeping an eye on for fantasy football
Why Dylan Sampson is worth keeping an eye on for fantasy football
Read at ESPN
NFL news, scores and analytics — with the math shown.
Headlines and live scores from around the league, power rankings for all 32 teams, playoff odds from 10,000 simulated seasons, and a win probability on every game that you can take apart line by line.
- Backtest accuracy
- 64%
- 272 games replayed
- Brier score
- 0.222
- Lower is better
- Live record
- 66-40
- 62%
- Teams rated
- 32
- Updated every week
2026 Week 7 scoreboard
Live from the league feed- FinalPrime Video
NE24
CHI30 - FinalNFL Net
PIT16
NO10 - FinalFox
SF20
ATL29 - FinalCBS
CLE27
TEN24 - FinalCBS
IND10
MIN16 - FinalCBS
MIA28
NYJ25 - FinalFox
TB43
CAR13 - FinalCBS
CIN35
BAL13 - FinalFox
NYG27
HOU21 - FinalCBS
DEN30
ARI16 - FinalFox
GB17
DET20 - FinalFox
LAR35
LV21 - FinalNBC
KC3
SEA20 - FinalESPN
DAL38
PHI21
Around the league
Today's NFL headlines
Is Seth McGowan a worthwhile add in fantasy football?
NFL Week 8 betting odds: Lines and totals for every game
Rest-of-season rankings: Brock Purdy dips; Omar Cooper Jr., KC Concepcion rise
2026 NFL playoff picture: AFC, NFC seed projections, chances to make postseason
Why Hunter Henry is a top TE streamer in Week 8
If Brian Thomas Jr. is traded, could it boost his fantasy value?
Model board
This week's games and win probabilities
- caratgbThu, 8:15 PM EDTgb -2.559%Lean
- tenatcinSun, 1:00 PM ESTcin -7.574%Confident
- minatdetSun, 1:00 PM ESTmin -2.057%Lean
- lvatnyjSun, 1:00 PM ESTnyj -1.053%Coin flip
- balat
bufSun, 1:00 PM ESTbuf -6.070%Confident - cleatpitSun, 1:00 PM ESTpit -2.559%Lean
- atlattbSun, 1:00 PM ESTtb -1.054%Coin flip
- indat
jaxSun, 1:00 PM ESTjax -8.076%Strong
Probabilities come from each team's rating, home field and rest. Click any game for the full step-by-step math.
Season outlook
ESPN FPI playoff odds
- 1San Francisco 49ers13.1 W99%
- 2Buffalo Bills12.2 W96%
- 3Kansas City Chiefs11.8 W95%
- 4Cincinnati Bengals11.8 W92%
- 5Jacksonville Jaguars11.3 W92%
- 6Chicago Bears11.0 W80%
- 7Seattle Seahawks10.4 W70%
- 8Minnesota Vikings11.8 W92%
Real playoff probabilities from ESPN’s Football Power Index (2026 season); the bar and number both show the chance of making the playoffs, next to FPI’s projected wins.
Fantasy football
Draft board cheat sheet — top projected players
QB
- 1Josh Allenbuf · ADP 19.6370.3
- 2Lamar Jacksonbal · ADP 35.4322.3
- 3Drake Mayene · ADP 47.4319.9
RB
- 1Jahmyr Gibbsdet · ADP 1.4364.9
- 2Bijan Robinsonatl · ADP 2.4352.7
- 3Christian McCaffreysf · ADP 7.7341.8
WR
- 1Puka Nacualar · ADP 5.3353.5
- 2Ja'Marr Chasecin · ADP 4.3336.9
- 3Jaxon Smith-Njigbasea · ADP 6.2326.6
TE
- 1Trey McBrideari · ADP 22.4241.7
- 2Brock Bowerslv · ADP 24.0240.8
- 3Tyler Warrenind · ADP 51.9210.6
Projected season-long PPR points across a 600-player pool. Numbers per player.
Read the draft guideFull draft rankingsSet up your draft
Position-by-position strategy, sleepers and a week-by-week matchup chart — plus full rankings with real stats, ADP and projected points.
League standings
NaN standings
Live records from the league feed.
AFC East
| Team | W-L | Pct | Diff | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF#2 | 5-1 | +26 | ||
| NE#8 | 4-3 | +17 | ||
| NYJ#11 | 2-5 | -13 | ||
| MIA#14 | 1-5 | -59 |
AFC North
| Team | W-L | Pct | Diff | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT#6 | 5-2 | +15 | ||
| CLE#3 | 5-2 | -13 | ||
| CIN#7 | 4-2 | +41 | ||
| BAL#9 | 4-3 | +2 |
AFC South
| Team | W-L | Pct | Diff | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX#4 | 4-2 | +50 | ||
| HOU#13 | 2-5 | -5 | ||
| IND#12 | 2-5 | -26 | ||
| TEN#15 | 1-6 | -48 |
AFC West
| Team | W-L | Pct | Diff | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC#1 | 5-1 | +40 | ||
| DEN#5 | 5-2 | +3 | ||
| LV#10 | 3-4 | -14 | ||
 LAC#16 | 0-6 | -61 |
Analysis
From the notebook
A weekly recap rebuilt from live scores and standings, plus long-form pieces on the ratings and what 10,000 simulated seasons say about 2026.
- Model
Week 7: scores, standings, ratings
Every Week 7 final score, the current NFL standings and the model's updated top ten — rebuilt automatically from live league data.
4 min read - Betting Math
Model vs Vegas: Week 1's biggest gaps
Four Week 1 games where the model's spread is more than two points away from the posted line — including a five-point gap on Chargers-Cardinals.
5 min read - Betting Math
Turning win probability into a spread
The model prices every game as a percentage first and a spread second. The conversion is one division — and understanding it tells you when a number disagrees with the market.
5 min read - Ratings
Offense vs defense: splitting the ratings
The Rams have the league's best offensive rating at 1686 and the Seahawks the best defensive rating at 1646. Only one team is top five in both.
5 min read - Season Preview
Reading the 2026 playoff odds
The forecast runs the full 2026 schedule 10,000 times. The results say the league is flatter than the ratings board suggests — and that nobody is above a 62% playoff shot.
6 min read - Ratings
Closing form: who finished 2025 hot
The model weights the last six games more heavily than the first eleven. Seattle closed 81 points above its season rating; Kansas City closed 85 points below.
4 min read
No black box
Every number on this site can be traced back to a game that was played.
Ratings are built by replaying real results one at a time — who won, by how much, and against whom. Home field, rest and margin of victory are all priced explicitly, then turned into a win probability with a single published formula. Nothing is hand-tuned after the fact, and every prediction is graded against the final score.