Gridiron Elo

2026 Season · Week 1 · Sep 9 – Sep 14

Every Week 1 game, with the math in the open.

One Elo rating per team, carried through all 272 games of 2025 and regressed 25% toward the mean for the new season. Tap any matchup to see exactly how the number was reached.

How the model worksPower ratings
Strongest callJacksonville Jaguars70% to win

Wednesday Night Kickoff

1 game
New England Patriots logo
New England
Patriots
14-3 2025
Seattle Seahawks predicted to winSEA to win
58%
LeanSEA -2.5
Seattle Seahawks logo
Seattle
Seahawks
14-3 2025
Wed, 8:20 PM EDTNBCLumen Field · Seattle, WA

Thursday Night

1 game
San Francisco 49ers logo
San Francisco
49ers
12-5 2025
Los Angeles Rams predicted to winLAR to win
51%
Coin flipLAR 0.0
Los Angeles Rams logo
Los Angeles
Rams
12-5 2025
Thu, 8:35 PM EDTNetflixMelbourne Cricket Ground · Melbourne, VICNeutral site

Sunday Early Window

8 games
New Orleans Saints logo
New Orleans
Saints
6-11 2025
Detroit Lions predicted to winDET to win
52%
Coin flipDET -0.5
Detroit Lions logo
Detroit
Lions
9-8 2025
Sun, 1:00 PM EDTFOXFord Field · Detroit, MI
New York Jets logo
New York
Jets
3-14 2025
Tennessee Titans predicted to winTEN to win
59%
LeanTEN -2.5
Tennessee Titans logo
Tennessee
Titans
3-14 2025
Sun, 1:00 PM EDTCBSNissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
Baltimore Ravens logo
Baltimore
Ravens
8-9 2025
Baltimore Ravens predicted to winBAL to win
56%
LeanBAL -1.5
Indianapolis Colts logo
Indianapolis
Colts
8-9 2025
Sun, 1:00 PM EDTCBSLucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
Atlanta Falcons logo
Atlanta
Falcons
8-9 2025
Pittsburgh Steelers predicted to winPIT to win
54%
Coin flipPIT -1.0
Pittsburgh Steelers logo
Pittsburgh
Steelers
10-7 2025
Sun, 1:00 PM EDTFOXAcrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
Chicago Bears logo
Chicago
Bears
11-6 2025
Chicago Bears predicted to winCHI to win
54%
Coin flipCHI -1.0
Carolina Panthers logo
Carolina
Panthers
8-9 2025
Sun, 1:00 PM EDTFOXBank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
Cleveland Browns logo
Cleveland
Browns
5-12 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars predicted to winJAX to win
70%
ConfidentJAX -6.0
Jacksonville Jaguars logo
Jacksonville
Jaguars
13-4 2025
Sun, 1:00 PM EDTCBSEverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
Buffalo Bills logo
Buffalo
Bills
12-5 2025
Houston Texans predicted to winHOU to win
57%
LeanHOU -2.0
Houston Texans logo
Houston
Texans
12-5 2025
Sun, 1:00 PM EDTCBSReliant Stadium · Houston, TX
Tampa Bay Buccaneers logo
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
8-9 2025
Cincinnati Bengals predicted to winCIN to win
58%
LeanCIN -2.5
Cincinnati Bengals logo
Cincinnati
Bengals
6-11 2025
Sun, 1:00 PM EDTFOXPaycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH

Sunday Late Window

4 games
Green Bay Packers logo
Green Bay
Packers
9-7-1 2025
Minnesota Vikings predicted to winMIN to win
65%
ConfidentMIN -4.5
Minnesota Vikings logo
Minnesota
Vikings
9-8 2025
Sun, 4:25 PM EDTCBSU.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
Miami Dolphins logo
Miami
Dolphins
7-10 2025
Miami Dolphins predicted to winMIA to win
55%
LeanMIA -1.5
Las Vegas Raiders logo
Las Vegas
Raiders
3-14 2025
Sun, 4:25 PM EDTFOXAllegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
Washington Commanders logo
Washington
Commanders
5-12 2025
Philadelphia Eagles predicted to winPHI to win
59%
LeanPHI -2.5
Philadelphia Eagles logo
Philadelphia
Eagles
11-6 2025
Sun, 4:25 PM EDTFOXLincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
Arizona Cardinals logo
Arizona
Cardinals
3-14 2025
Los Angeles Chargers predicted to winLAC to win
69%
ConfidentLAC -5.5
Los Angeles Chargers logo
Los Angeles
Chargers
11-6 2025
Sun, 4:25 PM EDTCBSSoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA

Sunday Night

1 game
Dallas Cowboys logo
Dallas
Cowboys
7-9-1 2025
New York Giants predicted to winNYG to win
59%
LeanNYG -2.5
New York Giants logo
New York
Giants
4-13 2025
Sun, 8:20 PM EDTNBCMetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ

Monday Night

1 game
Denver Broncos logo
Denver
Broncos
14-3 2025
Denver Broncos predicted to winDEN to win
66%
ConfidentDEN -4.5
Kansas City Chiefs logo
Kansas City
Chiefs
6-11 2025
Mon, 8:15 PM EDTESPN/ABCArrowhead Stadium · Kansas City, MO