Team ratings

The ratings board

Every team's 2026 starting rating — a blend of opponent-adjusted Elo, scoring strength, late-season form and offense/defense splits, regressed toward the mean — next to the week-by-week trail that produced it and the strength of the schedule they played. All sparklines share one vertical scale, so a steep line really is a steep line. Schedule strength is context only: it is never fed back into a prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.

# ▾	Team	Rating	2025	Peak / low	2025 trail	Avg opp	SoS	vs above avg
1	Seattle Seahawks	1688	14-3+191	1741 / 1477		1507	#13	6-2
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	1647	13-4+138	1684 / 1485		1493	#24	4-3
3	Houston Texans	1639	12-5+109	1678 / 1450		1513	#8	5-4
4	Denver Broncos	1629	14-3+90	1676 / 1500		1458	#31	3-2
5	New England Patriots	1628	14-3+170	1668 / 1465		1451	#32	2-2
6	Los Angeles Rams	1615	12-5+172	1686 / 1500		1519	#5	6-3
7	Buffalo Bills	1602	12-5+116	1632 / 1500		1481	#29	3-3
8	San Francisco 49ers	1595	12-5+66	1653 / 1500		1513	#7	3-4
9	Minnesota Vikings	1550	9-8+11	1557 / 1404		1504	#15	3-6
10	Chicago Bears	1542	11-6+26	1599 / 1438		1485	#27	3-5
11	Los Angeles Chargers	1539	11-6+28	1598 / 1484		1482	#28	4-3
12	Pittsburgh Steelers	1522	10-7+10	1558 / 1470		1508	#12	5-4
13	Baltimore Ravens	1520	8-9+26	1549 / 1388		1507	#14	2-7
14	Detroit Lions	1517	9-8+68	1597 / 1469		1494	#20	3-5
15	Philadelphia Eagles	1516	11-6+54	1607 / 1500		1485	#26	4-3
16	Green Bay Packers	1494	9-7-1+31	1637 / 1500		1494	#22	5-5
17	Atlanta Falcons	1494	8-9-48	1538 / 1405		1496	#18	3-3
18	Indianapolis Colts	1470	8-9+54	1631 / 1465		1526	#3	2-8
19	New Orleans Saints	1467	6-11-77	1500 / 1352		1493	#23	0-6
20	Cincinnati Bengals	1460	6-11-78	1530 / 1357		1511	#10	3-8
21	Carolina Panthers	1449	8-9-69	1509 / 1435		1509	#11	1-5
22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1447	8-9-31	1565 / 1421		1515	#6	3-5
23	Miami Dolphins	1435	7-10-77	1515 / 1376		1492	#25	1-6
24	Cleveland Browns	1434	5-12-100	1500 / 1346		1494	#19	1-9
25	New York Giants	1432	4-13-58	1500 / 1311		1496	#17	2-7
26	Dallas Cowboys	1430	7-9-1-40	1534 / 1414		1465	#30	1-6
27	Kansas City Chiefs	1428	6-11+34	1606 / 1416		1502	#16	2-8
28	Washington Commanders	1421	5-12-95	1555 / 1343		1494	#21	2-6
29	Tennessee Titans	1372	3-14-194	1500 / 1288		1542	#1	0-10
30	Arizona Cardinals	1361	3-14-133	1546 / 1324		1539	#2	0-8
31	New York Jets	1338	3-14-203	1500 / 1290		1519	#4	0-8
32	Las Vegas Raiders	1320	3-14-191	1530 / 1249		1513	#9	1-8

Tap a column header to re-sort. SoS #1 is the toughest schedule faced in 2025.