Team ratings
The ratings board
Every team's 2026 starting rating — a blend of opponent-adjusted Elo, scoring strength, late-season form and offense/defense splits, regressed toward the mean — next to the week-by-week trail that produced it and the strength of the schedule they played. All sparklines share one vertical scale, so a steep line really is a steep line. Schedule strength is context only: it is never fed back into a prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
| Team | 2025 trail | vs above avg | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Seattle Seahawks | 1619 | 14-3+191 | 1659 / 1476 | 1503 | #13 | 8-2 | |
| 2 |  Jacksonville Jaguars | 1606 | 13-4+138 | 1644 / 1469 | 1490 | #27 | 4-3 | |
| 3 |  Houston Texans | 1588 | 12-5+109 | 1620 / 1450 | 1503 | #14 | 5-4 | |
| 4 |  New England Patriots | 1587 | 14-3+170 | 1622 / 1466 | 1477 | #30 | 4-2 | |
| 5 |  Denver Broncos | 1574 | 14-3+90 | 1616 / 1500 | 1471 | #32 | 3-2 | |
| 6 |  Buffalo Bills | 1564 | 12-5+116 | 1596 / 1500 | 1492 | #26 | 4-4 | |
| 7 |  Los Angeles Rams | 1555 | 12-5+172 | 1635 / 1500 | 1510 | #6 | 6-4 | |
| 8 |  San Francisco 49ers | 1551 | 12-5+66 | 1618 / 1490 | 1509 | #7 | 5-4 | |
| 9 |  Minnesota Vikings | 1551 | 9-8+11 | 1569 / 1407 | 1501 | #15 | 1-7 | |
| 10 |  Baltimore Ravens | 1519 | 8-9+26 | 1577 / 1394 | 1506 | #11 | 2-6 | |
| 11 |  Pittsburgh Steelers | 1518 | 10-7+10 | 1558 / 1459 | 1506 | #10 | 4-4 | |
| 12 |  Chicago Bears | 1515 | 11-6+26 | 1585 / 1435 | 1494 | #25 | 4-3 | |
| 13 |  Atlanta Falcons | 1515 | 8-9-48 | 1540 / 1414 | 1497 | #20 | 5-3 | |
| 14 |  New Orleans Saints | 1509 | 6-11-77 | 1532 / 1382 | 1496 | #21 | 0-8 | |
| 15 |  Los Angeles Chargers | 1507 | 11-6+28 | 1581 / 1469 | 1488 | #29 | 4-3 | |
| 16 |  Philadelphia Eagles | 1501 | 11-6+54 | 1584 / 1489 | 1489 | #28 | 3-3 | |
| 17 |  Detroit Lions | 1498 | 9-8+68 | 1594 / 1462 | 1496 | #22 | 3-5 | |
| 18 |  Cincinnati Bengals | 1494 | 6-11-78 | 1532 / 1394 | 1509 | #8 | 3-7 | |
| 19 |  New York Giants | 1488 | 4-13-58 | 1500 / 1372 | 1494 | #24 | 2-7 | |
| 20 |  Cleveland Browns | 1482 | 5-12-100 | 1500 / 1398 | 1499 | #17 | 1-8 | |
| 21 |  Green Bay Packers | 1467 | 9-7-1+31 | 1605 / 1457 | 1498 | #19 | 3-5 | |
| 22 |  Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1461 | 8-9-31 | 1559 / 1423 | 1511 | #5 | 5-6 | |
| 23 |  Carolina Panthers | 1461 | 8-9-69 | 1524 / 1448 | 1507 | #9 | 3-7 | |
| 24 |  Washington Commanders | 1460 | 5-12-95 | 1550 / 1374 | 1494 | #23 | 2-6 | |
| 25 |  Miami Dolphins | 1456 | 7-10-77 | 1556 / 1395 | 1498 | #18 | 3-6 | |
| 26 |  Indianapolis Colts | 1450 | 8-9+54 | 1608 / 1426 | 1516 | #4 | 3-8 | |
| 27 |  Dallas Cowboys | 1448 | 7-9-1-40 | 1542 / 1430 | 1476 | #31 | 1-5 | |
| 28 |  Tennessee Titans | 1435 | 3-14-194 | 1500 / 1361 | 1523 | #1 | 0-11 | |
| 29 |  Kansas City Chiefs | 1432 | 6-11+34 | 1603 / 1406 | 1500 | #16 | 1-8 | |
| 30 |  New York Jets | 1396 | 3-14-203 | 1500 / 1359 | 1518 | #3 | 1-9 | |
| 31 |  Arizona Cardinals | 1396 | 3-14-133 | 1547 / 1357 | 1523 | #2 | 1-9 | |
| 32 |  Las Vegas Raiders | 1395 | 3-14-191 | 1532 / 1324 | 1505 | #12 | 1-8 |
Tap a column header to re-sort. SoS #1 is the toughest schedule faced in 2025.
Matchup chart
How Seattle Seahawks would be priced against all 31 other teams today, from the same ratings that drive every prediction.
- Arizona Cardinals#31 · 3-14inj −0.982%was 81%−10.5
- Las Vegas Raiders#32 · 3-14inj −0.381%−10.0
- New York Jets#30 · 3-14inj −0.380%−10.0
- Kansas City Chiefs#29 · 6-11inj −0.377%−8.5
- Tennessee Titans#28 · 3-14inj −0.377%−8.5
- Indianapolis Colts#26 · 8-9inj −0.676%was 75%−8.0
- Dallas Cowboys#27 · 7-9-1inj −0.375%−7.5
- Washington Commanders#24 · 5-12inj −0.474%−7.5
- Carolina Panthers#23 · 8-9inj −0.474%−7.5
- Miami Dolphins#25 · 7-10inj −0.174%was 75%−7.0
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers#22 · 8-9inj −0.274%was 74%−7.0
- Green Bay Packers#21 · 9-7-1inj −0.474%−7.0
- New York Giants#19 · 4-13inj −0.671%−6.5
- Cleveland Browns#20 · 5-12inj −0.371%−6.5
- Philadelphia Eagles#16 · 11-6inj −0.971%was 69%−6.0
- Detroit Lions#17 · 9-8inj −0.570%−6.0
- Cincinnati Bengals#18 · 6-11inj −0.370%−6.0
- Los Angeles Chargers#15 · 11-6inj −0.569%−5.5
- Atlanta Falcons#13 · 8-9inj −0.769%was 68%−5.5
- Chicago Bears#12 · 11-6inj −0.568%−5.0
- New Orleans Saints#14 · 6-11inj −0.268%−5.0
- Baltimore Ravens#10 · 8-9inj −0.567%−5.0
- Pittsburgh Steelers#11 · 10-7inj −0.367%−5.0
- San Francisco 49ers#8 · 12-5inj −0.864%was 63%−4.0
- Los Angeles Rams#7 · 12-5inj −0.563%−3.5
- Minnesota Vikings#9 · 9-8inj −0.162%was 63%−3.5
- Buffalo Bills#6 · 12-5inj −0.260%was 61%−3.0
- Denver Broncos#5 · 14-3inj −0.560%−3.0
- New England Patriots#4 · 14-3inj −0.659%was 58%−2.5
- Houston Texans#3 · 12-5inj −0.458%−2.5
- Jacksonville Jaguars#2 · 13-4inj −0.255%was 55%−1.5
Win probability for SEA and the model spread it implies. Negative spreads mean SEA is favoured. Home and road views apply the flat 25-point host adjustment; neutral applies none. With injuries on, each team's rating drops by its current report — capped at 7 points of spread — exactly as the matchup pages price it.
Records by division
Last season's finish and current league rank for all 32 teams.
NFC West
- Seattle Seahawks14-3#1
- Los Angeles Rams12-5#7
- San Francisco 49ers12-5#8
- Arizona Cardinals3-14#31
AFC South
- Jacksonville Jaguars13-4#2
- Houston Texans12-5#3
- Indianapolis Colts8-9#26
- Tennessee Titans3-14#28
AFC East
- New England Patriots14-3#4
- Buffalo Bills12-5#6
- Miami Dolphins7-10#25
- New York Jets3-14#30
AFC West
- Denver Broncos14-3#5
- Los Angeles Chargers11-6#15
- Kansas City Chiefs6-11#29
- Las Vegas Raiders3-14#32
NFC North
- Minnesota Vikings9-8#9
- Chicago Bears11-6#12
- Detroit Lions9-8#17
- Green Bay Packers9-7-1#21
AFC North
- Baltimore Ravens8-9#10
- Pittsburgh Steelers10-7#11
- Cincinnati Bengals6-11#18
- Cleveland Browns5-12#20
NFC South
- Atlanta Falcons8-9#13
- New Orleans Saints6-11#14
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers8-9#22
- Carolina Panthers8-9#23
NFC East
- Philadelphia Eagles11-6#16
- New York Giants4-13#19
- Washington Commanders5-12#24
- Dallas Cowboys7-9-1#27