Week 1 · Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · CBS
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX
Market line for comparison: BUF -1.5 · O/U 44.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Buffalo Bills
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 12-5 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1635 | 80% | 1308.2 |
Scoring strength 481–365 points (+116.0 differential) → 65.8% expected win rate | 1614 | 5% | 80.7 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1698 | 15% | 254.7 |
Offense / defense split 28.3 PPG scored, 21.5 allowed → offense 1632, defense 1539 | 1671 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1643.6 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1607.7 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| BUF 2026 starting rating | 1608 | ||
Houston Texans
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 12-5 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1695 | 80% | 1356.0 |
Scoring strength 404–295 points (+109.0 differential) → 67.8% expected win rate | 1629 | 5% | 81.5 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1768 | 15% | 265.2 |
Offense / defense split 23.8 PPG scored, 17.4 allowed → offense 1519, defense 1642 | 1660 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1702.7 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1652.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| HOU 2026 starting rating | 1652 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(74.3 / 400))
60.5% HOU
Model spread
74.3 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
HOU -3.0
Confidence band
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1635.2
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −27.5
- 2026 starting rating
- 1607.7
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 13–30 at MIA−77.2
- W 40–9 at CAR+59.5
- W 30–10 at NYJ+48.9
- 2025 final rating
- 1695.0
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −43.0
- 2026 starting rating
- 1652.0
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 44–10 at BAL+57.4
- W 26–15 vs SF+41.5
- W 26–0 vs TEN+40.3
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+30.0 pts
worth 4.2 points of win probability
HOU hosts at Reliant Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 35 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
Rest
+0.0 pts
Week 1: both teams come off the same offseason, so there is no rest edge to give.
Analyst override
+0.0 pts
No manual adjustment. The number here is pure model output.
2025 head to head
- Week 12: HOU won 23–19 (HOU at home)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1481
average opponent rating · 28th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-4
- vs below-average teams
- 9-1
1513
average opponent rating · 9th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 5-4
- vs below-average teams
- 7-1
What the model does not know
- · Injuries, suspensions and depth-chart changes.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.