Week 1 · Sun, 8:20 PM EDT · NBC
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Market line for comparison: DAL -2.5 · O/U 48.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Dallas Cowboys
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 7-9-1 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1398 | 80% | 1118.4 |
Scoring strength 471–511 points (-40.0 differential) → 45.2% expected win rate | 1466 | 5% | 73.3 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1317 | 15% | 197.6 |
Offense / defense split 27.7 PPG scored, 30.1 allowed → offense 1617, defense 1324 | 1441 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1389.3 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1417.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| DAL 2026 starting rating | 1417 | ||
New York Giants
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 4-13 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1410 | 80% | 1127.6 |
Scoring strength 381–439 points (-58.0 differential) → 41.7% expected win rate | 1442 | 5% | 72.1 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1454 | 15% | 218.2 |
Offense / defense split 22.4 PPG scored, 25.8 allowed → offense 1485, defense 1430 | 1415 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1417.9 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1438.4 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| NYG 2026 starting rating | 1438 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(51.4 / 400))
57.4% NYG
Model spread
51.4 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
NYG -2.0
Confidence band
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1398.0
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +19.0
- 2026 starting rating
- 1417.0
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 44–22 vs WSH+59.0
- L 17–34 at NYG−57.9
- L 14–31 at CHI−52.8
- 2025 final rating
- 1409.5
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +28.9
- 2026 starting rating
- 1438.4
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 34–17 vs PHI+69.8
- W 34–17 vs DAL+57.9
- W 34–10 at LV+53.1
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+30.0 pts
worth 4.3 points of win probability
NYG hosts at MetLife Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 35 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
Rest
+0.0 pts
Week 1: both teams come off the same offseason, so there is no rest edge to give.
Analyst override
+0.0 pts
No manual adjustment. The number here is pure model output.
2025 head to head
- Week 2: DAL won 40–37 (NYG on the road)
- Week 18: NYG won 34–17 (NYG at home)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1461
average opponent rating · 30th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 1-6
- vs below-average teams
- 6-3-1
1493
average opponent rating · 21st toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 2-7
- vs below-average teams
- 2-6
What the model does not know
- · Injuries, suspensions and depth-chart changes.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.