Week 1 · Mon, 8:15 PM EDT · ESPN/ABC
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Market line for comparison: KC -3 · O/U 42.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Denver Broncos
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 14-3 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1681 | 80% | 1344.6 |
Scoring strength 401–311 points (+90.0 differential) → 64.6% expected win rate | 1605 | 5% | 80.2 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1716 | 15% | 257.4 |
Offense / defense split 23.6 PPG scored, 18.3 allowed → offense 1514, defense 1618 | 1632 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1682.2 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1636.7 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| DEN 2026 starting rating | 1637 | ||
Kansas City Chiefs
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 6-11 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1392 | 80% | 1113.9 |
Scoring strength 362–328 points (+34.0 differential) → 55.8% expected win rate | 1541 | 5% | 77.0 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1251 | 15% | 187.7 |
Offense / defense split 21.3 PPG scored, 19.3 allowed → offense 1457, defense 1593 | 1550 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1378.7 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1409.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| KC 2026 starting rating | 1409 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(-197.7 / 400))
75.7% DEN
Model spread
-197.7 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
DEN -8.0
Confidence band
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1680.8
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −44.1
- 2026 starting rating
- 1636.7
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 20–34 vs JAX−57.4
- W 28–3 vs CIN+41.4
- W 44–24 vs DAL+34.4
- 2025 final rating
- 1392.4
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +16.6
- 2026 starting rating
- 1409.0
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 9–26 at TEN−74.4
- W 30–17 vs DET+51.4
- W 22–9 at NYG+45.5
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+30.0 pts
worth 3.0 points of win probability
KC hosts at Arrowhead Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 35 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
Rest
+0.0 pts
Week 1: both teams come off the same offseason, so there is no rest edge to give.
Analyst override
+0.0 pts
No manual adjustment. The number here is pure model output.
2025 head to head
- Week 11: DEN won 22–19 (KC on the road)
- Week 17: DEN won 20–13 (KC at home)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1454
average opponent rating · 31st toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-2
- vs below-average teams
- 11-1
1502
average opponent rating · 16th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 2-8
- vs below-average teams
- 4-3
What the model does not know
- · Injuries, suspensions and depth-chart changes.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.