AFC South
Houston Texans
12-5 in 2025 · 404–295 (+109)
Rating · rank
1588
#3 of 32
2025 final Elo
1608
Offseason move
-20
Model on their games
16-1
Avg win probability
57%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · CBS
vs
Buffalo Bills
Reliant Stadium, Houston
Model win probability
57%
Lean · -2.0
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 9.4–8.6
- 6–13 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 57%
- 34% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 4%
- 11% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1496
- 9% top-5 pick
Why HOU rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 12-5 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1608 | 80% | 1286.6 |
Scoring strength 404–295 points (+109.0 differential) → 67.8% expected win rate | 1629 | 5% | 81.5 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1661 | 15% | 249.1 |
Offense / defense split 23.8 PPG scored, 17.4 allowed → offense 1519, defense 1642 | 1660 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1617.1 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1587.8 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| HOU 2026 starting rating | 1588 | ||
Schedule they played
Who HOU actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1503
average opponent rating · 14th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 5-4
- vs below-average teams
- 7-1
Toughest faced
- Seattle Seahawks1619 · L
- Jacksonville Jaguars1606 · L
- Jacksonville Jaguars1606 · W
Easiest faced
- Las Vegas Raiders1395 · W
- Arizona Cardinals1396 · W
- Kansas City Chiefs1432 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 16202025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given HOU before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @  Rams | L9–14 | 46% | ✓ | -23.0 |
| 2 | L19–20 | 48% | ✓ | -9.2 | |
| 3 | L10–17 | 41% | ✓ | -23.4 | |
| 4 | vs  Titans | W26–0 | 58% | ✓ | +37.4 |
| 5 | W44–10 | 53% | ✓ | +49.0 | |
| 7 | L19–27 | 44% | ✓ | -25.3 | |
| 8 | vs  49ers | W26–15 | 56% | ✓ | +34.7 |
| 9 | vs  Broncos | L15–18 | 49% | ✓ | -18.1 |
| 10 | vs  Jaguars | W36–29 | 62% | ✓ | +24.4 |
| 11 | W16–13 | 77% | ✓ | +12.1 | |
| 12 | vs Bills | W23–19 | 53% | ✓ | +20.7 |
| 13 | W20–16 | 45% | ✕ | +22.6 | |
| 14 | W20–10 | 51% | ✓ | +30.8 | |
| 15 | W40–20 | 79% | ✓ | +17.8 | |
| 16 | vs  Raiders | W23–21 | 86% | ✓ | +4.9 |
| 17 | W20–16 | 52% | ✓ | +22.8 | |
| 18 | vs  Colts | W38–30 | 72% | ✓ | +14.2 |
| Model on 17 games | 16-1(94%) | avg 57% | +192.3 | ||
