AFC West
Las Vegas Raiders
3-14 in 2025 · 241–432 (-191)
Rating · rank
1395
#32 of 32
2025 final Elo
1374
Offseason move
+21
Model on their games
14-3
Avg win probability
37%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 4:25 PM EDT · FOX
vs
Miami Dolphins
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Model win probability
45%
Lean · +1.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 7.3–10.7
- 4–11 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 29%
- 16% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 2%
- 3% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1504
- 27% top-5 pick
Why LV rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 3-14 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1374 | 80% | 1099.2 |
Scoring strength 241–432 points (-191.0 differential) → 20.1% expected win rate | 1260 | 5% | 63.0 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1315 | 15% | 197.2 |
Offense / defense split 14.2 PPG scored, 25.4 allowed → offense 1279, defense 1440 | 1219 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1359.4 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1394.5 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| LV 2026 starting rating | 1395 | ||
Schedule they played
Who LV actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1505
average opponent rating · 12th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 1-8
- vs below-average teams
- 2-6
Toughest faced
- Jacksonville Jaguars1606 · L
- Houston Texans1588 · L
- New England Patriots1587 · W
Easiest faced
- Kansas City Chiefs1432 · W
- Kansas City Chiefs1432 · L
- Tennessee Titans1435 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 13602025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given LV before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | W20–13 | 46% | ✕ | +31.6 | |
| 2 | vs  Chargers | L9–20 | 54% | ✕ | -38.2 |
| 3 | L24–41 | 45% | ✓ | -35.7 | |
| 4 | vs  Bears | L24–25 | 50% | ✓ | -9.6 |
| 5 | L6–40 | 26% | ✓ | -34.0 | |
| 6 | vs  Titans | W20–10 | 57% | ✓ | +29.6 |
| 7 | L0–31 | 27% | ✓ | -31.5 | |
| 9 | vs  Jaguars | L29–30 | 41% | ✓ | -9.3 |
| 10 | L7–10 | 20% | ✓ | -9.6 | |
| 11 | vs  Cowboys | L16–33 | 44% | ✓ | -40.6 |
| 12 | vs  Browns | L10–24 | 50% | ✓ | -39.5 |
| 13 | L14–31 | 26% | ✓ | -23.0 | |
| 14 | vs  Broncos | L17–24 | 21% | ✓ | -13.8 |
| 15 | L0–31 | 25% | ✓ | -27.4 | |
| 16 | L21–23 | 14% | ✓ | -4.9 | |
| 17 | vs  Giants | L10–34 | 48% | ✓ | -46.7 |
| 18 | vs  Chiefs | W14–12 | 33% | ✕ | +18.4 |
| Model on 17 games | 14-3(82%) | avg 37% | -284.3 | ||
