Season forecast
How 2026 plays out
The full 2026 schedule, simulated 10,000 times from the same Elo ratings that drive every matchup page. Each simulated game is decided by its win probability, ratings move after every result, and the season is carried through division races, the seven-team bracket and the draft order. Games that have already been played are treated as certain, so the odds tighten week by week.
Minnesota Vikings9%
to win it all · 12.3–5.7 projected · 92% playoffs
San Francisco 49ers7%
to win it all · 11.4–6.6 projected · 89% playoffs
Buffalo Bills6%
to win it all · 11.2–6.8 projected · 80% playoffs
| Team | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 1551 | 12.3–5.7(10–15 W)now 6-0 | 92% | 63% | 43% | 9% | 1515 | <1%(#1 0%) |
| San Francisco 49ers | 1551 | 11.4–6.6(9–14 W)now 6-1 | 89% | 67% | 26% | 7% | 1486 | <1%(#1 0%) |
| Buffalo Bills | 1564 | 11.2–6.8(8–14 W)now 5-1 | 80% | 62% | 19% | 6% | 1500 | <1%(#1 0%) |
 Denver Broncos | 1574 | 10.7–7.3(8–13 W)now 5-2 | 77% | 44% | 14% | 6% | 1480 | <1%(#1 0%) |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 1606 | 10.3–7.7(8–13 W)now 4-2 | 78% | 74% | 9% | 6% | 1472 | 2%(#1 <1%) |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 1518 | 10.5–7.5(8–13 W)now 5-2 | 71% | 30% | 11% | 6% | 1498 | 1%(#1 0%) |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 1432 | 10.6–7.4(8–13 W)now 5-1 | 80% | 50% | 19% | 6% | 1504 | <1%(#1 0%) |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 1494 | 10.3–7.7(8–13 W)now 4-2 | 69% | 31% | 10% | 5% | 1484 | 2%(#1 <1%) |
 Chicago Bears | 1515 | 10.3–7.8(8–13 W)now 5-2 | 65% | 16% | 7% | 5% | 1529 | 1%(#1 0%) |
 Cleveland Browns | 1482 | 10.2–7.8(8–13 W)now 5-2 | 69% | 29% | 9% | 5% | 1502 | <1%(#1 <1%) |
 New England Patriots | 1587 | 9.4–8.6(7–12 W)now 4-3 | 62% | 32% | 6% | 4% | 1500 | 2%(#1 <1%) |
 Seattle Seahawks | 1619 | 9.7–8.3(7–12 W)now 4-3 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 4% | 1488 | 3%(#1 <1%) |
 New York Giants | 1488 | 9.6–8.4(8–13 W)now 4-2-1 | 67% | 59% | 5% | 4% | 1491 | 2%(#1 <1%) |
 Detroit Lions | 1498 | 9.6–8.4(7–12 W)now 4-2 | 58% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1522 | 3%(#1 <1%) |
 Green Bay Packers | 1467 | 9.0–9.0(7–12 W)now 4-3 | 43% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 1520 | 4%(#1 <1%) |
 Atlanta Falcons | 1515 | 7.9–10.1(5–10 W)now 3-4 | 37% | 30% | <1% | 2% | 1511 | 12%(#1 <1%) |
 Dallas Cowboys | 1448 | 8.2–9.8(6–11 W)now 3-4 | 38% | 25% | <1% | 2% | 1482 | 9%(#1 <1%) |
 Los Angeles Rams | 1555 | 8.4–9.6(6–11 W)now 3-4 | 33% | 9% | <1% | 2% | 1498 | 10%(#1 <1%) |
 Carolina Panthers | 1461 | 8.0–10.0(5–11 W)now 3-3 | 39% | 32% | 1% | 2% | 1529 | 12%(#1 <1%) |
 Baltimore Ravens | 1519 | 8.7–9.3(6–11 W)now 4-3 | 35% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 1524 | 7%(#1 <1%) |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1461 | 7.1–10.9(5–10 W)now 2-5 | 28% | 23% | <1% | 2% | 1494 | 19%(#1 2%) |
 Houston Texans | 1588 | 7.1–10.9(5–10 W)now 2-5 | 23% | 14% | <1% | 2% | 1474 | 18%(#1 2%) |
 New Orleans Saints | 1509 | 6.6–11.4(4–9 W)now 2-5 | 18% | 14% | <1% | 1% | 1503 | 31%(#1 5%) |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 1395 | 7.3–10.7(5–10 W)now 3-4 | 20% | 6% | <1% | 1% | 1497 | 19%(#1 2%) |
 Washington Commanders | 1460 | 6.6–11.4(4–10 W)now 1-4-1 | 14% | 9% | <1% | <1% | 1498 | 32%(#1 6%) |
 Indianapolis Colts | 1450 | 6.4–11.6(4–9 W)now 2-5 | 12% | 8% | <1% | <1% | 1495 | 33%(#1 6%) |
 New York Jets | 1396 | 6.4–11.6(4–9 W)now 2-5 | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% | 1506 | 37%(#1 7%) |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 1501 | 6.3–11.7(4–9 W)now 2-5 | 11% | 7% | <1% | <1% | 1496 | 36%(#1 6%) |
 Miami Dolphins | 1456 | 5.8–12.2(3–8 W)now 1-5 | 8% | 3% | <1% | <1% | 1517 | 43%(#1 10%) |
 Tennessee Titans | 1435 | 5.2–12.8(3–8 W)now 1-6 | 5% | 4% | <1% | <1% | 1506 | 55%(#1 14%) |
 Arizona Cardinals | 1396 | 6.3–11.7(4–9 W)now 2-5 | 7% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 1482 | 37%(#1 6%) |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 1507 | 4.7–13.3(2–7 W)now 0-6 | 2% | <1% | 0% | <1% | 1501 | 67%(#1 29%) |
Tap a column header to re-sort. The bracketed range next to each projected record is the 10th-to-90th percentile win total across all simulations.
How the forecast is built
- 1. Start from today's ratings. Every team begins at its current rating — the blend of opponent-adjusted Elo, scoring strength and late-season form explained on the methodology page.
- 2. Play every remaining game. The rating gap plus home field advantage gives a win probability; a weighted coin decides it, a plausible margin is drawn around the model spread, and both ratings update exactly as they would in real life.
- 3. Sort the standings. Division winners take seeds 1-4, the next three teams in each conference take the wild cards, and ties break on division record, then conference record.
- 4. Play the bracket. Wild card, divisional, conference title and a neutral-site Super Bowl — all with the same probability engine. Teams that miss are ranked in reverse to produce the draft order.
- 5. Repeat 10,000 times. Each percentage is simply the share of simulated seasons in which that outcome happened.
The current injury report is carried into every game still to be played: a team's rating is docked for the starters it is missing, in full for the next week and fading gradually after that. Trades and coaching changes are only reflected through the manual roster adjustment on each team page. Odds are a description of the ratings, not advice.