Season forecast
How 2026 plays out
The full 2026 schedule, simulated 10,000 times from the same Elo ratings that drive every matchup page. Each simulated game is decided by its win probability, ratings move after every result, and the season is carried through division races, the seven-team bracket and the draft order. Games that have already been played are treated as certain, so the odds tighten week by week.
Seattle Seahawks5%
to win it all · 9.9–8.1 projected · 62% playoffs
Jacksonville Jaguars5%
to win it all · 9.3–8.7 projected · 55% playoffs
New England Patriots4%
to win it all · 9.3–8.8 projected · 55% playoffs
| Team | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 1619 | 9.9–8.1(6–13 W) | 62% | 38% | 13% | 5% | 1492 | 6%(#1 <1%) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1606 | 9.3–8.7(6–13 W) | 55% | 33% | 10% | 5% | 1502 | 9%(#1 1%) |
| New England Patriots | 1587 | 9.3–8.8(6–13 W) | 55% | 34% | 10% | 4% | 1501 | 10%(#1 2%) |
 Houston Texans | 1588 | 9.4–8.6(6–13 W) | 57% | 34% | 11% | 4% | 1496 | 9%(#1 1%) |
 Denver Broncos | 1574 | 9.2–8.8(6–13 W) | 56% | 38% | 10% | 4% | 1493 | 9%(#1 2%) |
 Los Angeles Rams | 1555 | 9.1–8.9(6–13 W) | 51% | 27% | 8% | 4% | 1496 | 11%(#1 2%) |
 San Francisco 49ers | 1551 | 9.0–9.0(5–12 W) | 50% | 25% | 8% | 4% | 1498 | 11%(#1 2%) |
 Minnesota Vikings | 1551 | 9.2–8.8(6–13 W) | 52% | 31% | 9% | 4% | 1492 | 10%(#1 2%) |
 Buffalo Bills | 1564 | 9.0–9.0(5–13 W) | 51% | 30% | 8% | 4% | 1499 | 11%(#1 2%) |
 New Orleans Saints | 1509 | 8.8–9.2(5–12 W) | 47% | 29% | 7% | 3% | 1482 | 13%(#1 2%) |
 Chicago Bears | 1515 | 8.6–9.4(5–12 W) | 44% | 25% | 6% | 3% | 1512 | 14%(#1 3%) |
 New York Giants | 1488 | 8.5–9.5(5–12 W) | 44% | 28% | 6% | 3% | 1500 | 15%(#1 3%) |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 1501 | 8.6–9.4(5–12 W) | 46% | 29% | 7% | 3% | 1499 | 14%(#1 3%) |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 1518 | 8.6–9.4(5–12 W) | 46% | 27% | 7% | 3% | 1510 | 14%(#1 3%) |
 Baltimore Ravens | 1519 | 8.7–9.3(5–12 W) | 48% | 27% | 7% | 3% | 1502 | 14%(#1 2%) |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 1507 | 8.6–9.4(5–12 W) | 46% | 27% | 6% | 3% | 1500 | 14%(#1 3%) |
 Detroit Lions | 1498 | 8.6–9.4(5–12 W) | 44% | 24% | 6% | 3% | 1490 | 14%(#1 3%) |
 Atlanta Falcons | 1515 | 8.7–9.3(5–12 W) | 47% | 28% | 6% | 3% | 1491 | 13%(#1 2%) |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 1494 | 8.4–9.6(5–12 W) | 42% | 23% | 5% | 3% | 1495 | 16%(#1 3%) |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1461 | 8.1–9.9(5–12 W) | 38% | 22% | 5% | 3% | 1501 | 19%(#1 3%) |
 Cleveland Browns | 1482 | 8.3–9.7(5–12 W) | 42% | 23% | 5% | 3% | 1492 | 17%(#1 3%) |
 Carolina Panthers | 1461 | 8.1–9.9(5–12 W) | 37% | 21% | 5% | 3% | 1512 | 18%(#1 4%) |
 Green Bay Packers | 1467 | 8.2–9.8(5–12 W) | 38% | 20% | 5% | 3% | 1510 | 18%(#1 3%) |
 Miami Dolphins | 1456 | 8.1–9.9(5–12 W) | 39% | 21% | 5% | 3% | 1502 | 18%(#1 4%) |
 Indianapolis Colts | 1450 | 8.0–10.1(4–11 W) | 36% | 17% | 4% | 3% | 1506 | 21%(#1 4%) |
 Washington Commanders | 1460 | 8.0–10.0(5–12 W) | 37% | 22% | 4% | 2% | 1508 | 19%(#1 4%) |
 Dallas Cowboys | 1448 | 8.0–10.0(4–12 W) | 36% | 22% | 4% | 2% | 1503 | 20%(#1 4%) |
 Tennessee Titans | 1435 | 7.8–10.2(4–11 W) | 34% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 1499 | 22%(#1 5%) |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 1432 | 7.8–10.2(4–11 W) | 35% | 19% | 3% | 2% | 1502 | 22%(#1 5%) |
 New York Jets | 1396 | 7.5–10.5(4–11 W) | 30% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 1498 | 25%(#1 6%) |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 1395 | 7.3–10.7(4–11 W) | 29% | 16% | 3% | 2% | 1504 | 27%(#1 7%) |
 Arizona Cardinals | 1396 | 7.2–10.8(4–11 W) | 25% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 1509 | 30%(#1 7%) |
Tap a column header to re-sort. The bracketed range next to each projected record is the 10th-to-90th percentile win total across all simulations.
How the forecast is built
- 1. Start from today's ratings. Every team begins at its current rating — the blend of opponent-adjusted Elo, scoring strength and late-season form explained on the methodology page.
- 2. Play every remaining game. The rating gap plus home field advantage gives a win probability; a weighted coin decides it, a plausible margin is drawn around the model spread, and both ratings update exactly as they would in real life.
- 3. Sort the standings. Division winners take seeds 1-4, the next three teams in each conference take the wild cards, and ties break on division record, then conference record.
- 4. Play the bracket. Wild card, divisional, conference title and a neutral-site Super Bowl — all with the same probability engine. Teams that miss are ranked in reverse to produce the draft order.
- 5. Repeat 10,000 times. Each percentage is simply the share of simulated seasons in which that outcome happened.
The model knows nothing about injuries, trades or coaching changes beyond the manual roster adjustment on each team page. Odds are a description of the ratings, not advice.