AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars
13-4 in 2025 · 474–336 (+138)
Rating · rank
1606
#2 of 32
2025 final Elo
1630
Offseason move
-24
Model on their games
13-4
Avg win probability
56%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · CBS
vs
Cleveland Browns
EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville
Model win probability
70%
Confident · -6.0
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 9.3–8.7
- 6–13 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 55%
- 33% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 5%
- 10% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1502
- 9% top-5 pick
Why JAX rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 13-4 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1630 | 80% | 1303.6 |
Scoring strength 474–336 points (+138.0 differential) → 69.3% expected win rate | 1642 | 5% | 82.1 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1702 | 15% | 255.3 |
Offense / defense split 27.9 PPG scored, 19.8 allowed → offense 1622, defense 1581 | 1703 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1641.0 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1605.8 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| JAX 2026 starting rating | 1606 | ||
Schedule they played
Who JAX actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1490
average opponent rating · 27th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-3
- vs below-average teams
- 9-1
Toughest faced
- Seattle Seahawks1619 · L
- Houston Texans1588 · W
- Houston Texans1588 · L
Easiest faced
- Las Vegas Raiders1395 · W
- Arizona Cardinals1396 · W
- New York Jets1396 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 16442025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given JAX before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Panthers | W26–10 | 54% | ✓ | +36.4 |
| 2 | L27–31 | 50% | ✓ | -22.4 | |
| 3 | vs  Texans | W17–10 | 59% | ✓ | +23.4 |
| 4 | W26–21 | 44% | ✕ | +28.5 | |
| 5 | vs  Chiefs | W31–28 | 56% | ✓ | +16.6 |
| 6 | vs  Seahawks | L12–20 | 54% | ✕ | -36.3 |
| 7 | n  Rams | L7–35 | 46% | ✓ | -43.8 |
| 9 | W30–29 | 59% | ✓ | +9.3 | |
| 10 | L29–36 | 38% | ✓ | -24.4 | |
| 11 | vs  Chargers | W35–6 | 39% | ✕ | +57.7 |
| 12 | W27–24 | 59% | ✓ | +15.7 | |
| 13 | W25–3 | 73% | ✓ | +27.2 | |
| 14 | vs  Colts | W36–19 | 54% | ✓ | +31.1 |
| 15 | vs  Jets | W48–20 | 77% | ✓ | +22.6 |
| 16 | W34–20 | 45% | ✕ | +42.5 | |
| 17 | W23–17 | 66% | ✓ | +15.3 | |
| 18 | vs  Titans | W41–7 | 83% | ✓ | +20.2 |
| Model on 17 games | 13-4(76%) | avg 56% | +219.7 | ||
