AFC East
Buffalo Bills
12-5 in 2025 · 481–365 (+116)
Rating · rank
1564
#6 of 32
2025 final Elo
1577
Offseason move
-13
Model on their games
10-7
Avg win probability
60%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · CBS
at
Houston Texans
Reliant Stadium, Houston
Model win probability
43%
Lean · +2.0
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 9.0–9.0
- 5–13 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 51%
- 30% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 4%
- 8% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1499
- 11% top-5 pick
Why BUF rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 12-5 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1577 | 80% | 1261.8 |
Scoring strength 481–365 points (+116.0 differential) → 65.8% expected win rate | 1614 | 5% | 80.7 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1619 | 15% | 242.8 |
Offense / defense split 28.3 PPG scored, 21.5 allowed → offense 1632, defense 1539 | 1671 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1585.4 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1564.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| BUF 2026 starting rating | 1564 | ||
Schedule they played
Who BUF actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1492
average opponent rating · 26th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-4
- vs below-average teams
- 8-1
Toughest faced
- Houston Texans1588 · L
- New England Patriots1587 · L
- New England Patriots1587 · W
Easiest faced
- New York Jets1396 · W
- New York Jets1396 · W
- Kansas City Chiefs1432 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 15862025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given BUF before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Ravens | W41–40 | 54% | ✓ | +8.9 |
| 2 | @  Jets | W30–10 | 50% | ✕ | +42.9 |
| 3 | vs  Dolphins | W31–21 | 68% | ✓ | +20.3 |
| 4 | vs  Saints | W31–19 | 71% | ✓ | +19.3 |
| 5 | vs  Patriots | L20–23 | 64% | ✕ | -24.6 |
| 6 | L14–24 | 60% | ✕ | -34.9 | |
| 8 | W40–9 | 50% | ✓ | +55.2 | |
| 9 | vs  Chiefs | W28–21 | 48% | ✕ | +30.4 |
| 10 | L13–30 | 74% | ✕ | -57.0 | |
| 11 | W44–32 | 58% | ✓ | +32.5 | |
| 12 | L19–23 | 47% | ✓ | -20.7 | |
| 13 | W26–7 | 52% | ✓ | +42.7 | |
| 14 | vs  Bengals | W39–34 | 73% | ✓ | +16.7 |
| 15 | W35–31 | 41% | ✕ | +26.8 | |
| 16 | W23–20 | 75% | ✓ | +10.7 | |
| 17 | vs  Eagles | L12–13 | 60% | ✕ | -12.0 |
| 18 | vs Jets | W35–8 | 83% | ✓ | +19.3 |
| Model on 17 games | 10-7(59%) | avg 60% | +176.6 | ||
