AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers
10-7 in 2025 · 397–387 (+10)
Rating · rank
1518
#11 of 32
2025 final Elo
1523
Offseason move
-5
Model on their games
6-11
Avg win probability
51%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · FOX
vs
Atlanta Falcons
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
Model win probability
54%
Coin flip · -1.0
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 8.6–9.4
- 5–12 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 46%
- 27% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 3%
- 7% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1510
- 14% top-5 pick
Why PIT rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 10-7 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1523 | 80% | 1218.6 |
Scoring strength 397–387 points (+10.0 differential) → 51.5% expected win rate | 1511 | 5% | 75.5 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1535 | 15% | 230.3 |
Offense / defense split 23.4 PPG scored, 22.8 allowed → offense 1509, defense 1506 | 1515 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1524.4 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1518.3 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| PIT 2026 starting rating | 1518 | ||
Schedule they played
Who PIT actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1506
average opponent rating · 10th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-4
- vs below-average teams
- 6-3
Toughest faced
- Seattle Seahawks1619 · L
- New England Patriots1587 · W
- Buffalo Bills1564 · L
Easiest faced
- New York Jets1396 · W
- Indianapolis Colts1450 · W
- Miami Dolphins1456 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 15262025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given PIT before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @  Jets | W34–32 | 46% | ✕ | +16.7 |
| 2 | vs  Seahawks | L17–31 | 59% | ✕ | -45.9 |
| 3 | W21–14 | 42% | ✕ | +34.4 | |
| 4 | W24–21 | 47% | ✕ | +20.8 | |
| 6 | vs  Browns | W23–9 | 70% | ✓ | +25.5 |
| 7 | L31–33 | 73% | ✕ | -20.8 | |
| 8 | vs  Packers | L25–35 | 47% | ✓ | -32.8 |
| 9 | vs  Colts | W27–20 | 30% | ✕ | +37.5 |
| 10 | L10–25 | 44% | ✓ | -34.6 | |
| 11 | vs  Bengals | W34–12 | 67% | ✓ | +32.2 |
| 12 | L28–31 | 47% | ✓ | -17.2 | |
| 13 | vs  Bills | L7–26 | 48% | ✓ | -42.7 |
| 14 | W27–22 | 42% | ✕ | +30.4 | |
| 15 | vs  Dolphins | W28–15 | 48% | ✕ | +40.8 |
| 16 | W29–24 | 43% | ✕ | +26.1 | |
| 17 | L6–13 | 68% | ✕ | -40.9 | |
| 18 | vs  Ravens | W26–24 | 49% | ✕ | +15.7 |
| Model on 17 games | 6-11(35%) | avg 51% | +45.3 | ||
