NFC South
New Orleans Saints
6-11 in 2025 · 306–383 (-77)
Rating · rank
1509
#14 of 32
2025 final Elo
1512
Offseason move
-2
Model on their games
11-6
Avg win probability
41%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · FOX
at
Detroit Lions
Ford Field, Detroit
Model win probability
48%
Coin flip · +0.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 8.8–9.2
- 5–12 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 47%
- 29% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 3%
- 7% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1482
- 13% top-5 pick
Why NO rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 6-11 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1512 | 80% | 1209.4 |
Scoring strength 306–383 points (-77.0 differential) → 37.0% expected win rate | 1408 | 5% | 70.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1552 | 15% | 232.8 |
Offense / defense split 18.0 PPG scored, 22.5 allowed → offense 1375, defense 1512 | 1387 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1512.6 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1509.4 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| NO 2026 starting rating | 1509 | ||
Schedule they played
Who NO actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1496
average opponent rating · 21st toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 0-8
- vs below-average teams
- 6-3
Toughest faced
- Seattle Seahawks1619 · L
- New England Patriots1587 · L
- Buffalo Bills1564 · L
Easiest faced
- Arizona Cardinals1396 · L
- New York Jets1396 · W
- Tennessee Titans1435 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 15132025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given NO before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L13–20 | 54% | ✕ | -31.6 | |
| 2 | vs  49ers | L21–26 | 46% | ✓ | -23.0 |
| 3 | L13–44 | 37% | ✓ | -34.4 | |
| 4 | L19–31 | 29% | ✓ | -19.3 | |
| 5 | vs  Giants | W26–14 | 43% | ✕ | +37.6 |
| 6 | vs  Patriots | L19–25 | 34% | ✓ | -22.6 |
| 7 | L14–26 | 35% | ✓ | -25.7 | |
| 8 | L3–23 | 37% | ✓ | -34.0 | |
| 9 | @  Rams | L10–34 | 18% | ✓ | -20.4 |
| 10 | W17–7 | 29% | ✕ | +48.3 | |
| 12 | vs  Falcons | L10–24 | 52% | ✕ | -45.0 |
| 13 | L17–21 | 32% | ✓ | -14.8 | |
| 14 | W24–20 | 33% | ✕ | +29.6 | |
| 15 | vs  Panthers | W20–17 | 45% | ✕ | +20.4 |
| 16 | vs  Jets | W29–6 | 61% | ✓ | +32.6 |
| 17 | W34–26 | 56% | ✓ | +28.1 | |
| 18 | L17–19 | 48% | ✓ | -15.4 | |
| Model on 17 games | 11-6(65%) | avg 41% | -89.4 | ||
