AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals
6-11 in 2025 · 414–492 (-78)
Rating · rank
1494
#18 of 32
2025 final Elo
1494
Offseason move
+0
Model on their games
10-7
Avg win probability
39%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · FOX
vs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
Model win probability
58%
Lean · -2.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 8.4–9.6
- 5–12 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 42%
- 23% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 3%
- 5% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1495
- 16% top-5 pick
Why CIN rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 6-11 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1494 | 80% | 1195.4 |
Scoring strength 414–492 points (-78.0 differential) → 39.9% expected win rate | 1429 | 5% | 71.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1505 | 15% | 225.7 |
Offense / defense split 24.4 PPG scored, 28.9 allowed → offense 1534, defense 1352 | 1385 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1492.5 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1494.4 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| CIN 2026 starting rating | 1494 | ||
Schedule they played
Who CIN actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1509
average opponent rating · 8th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-7
- vs below-average teams
- 3-4
Toughest faced
- Jacksonville Jaguars1606 · W
- New England Patriots1587 · L
- Denver Broncos1574 · L
Easiest faced
- Arizona Cardinals1396 · W
- New York Jets1396 · L
- Miami Dolphins1456 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 14942025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given CIN before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | W17–16 | 46% | ✕ | +10.5 | |
| 2 | vs  Jaguars | W31–27 | 50% | ✓ | +22.4 |
| 3 | L10–48 | 54% | ✕ | -56.5 | |
| 4 | L3–28 | 43% | ✓ | -38.2 | |
| 5 | vs  Lions | L24–37 | 20% | ✓ | -25.4 |
| 6 | L18–27 | 22% | ✓ | -20.4 | |
| 7 | vs  Steelers | W33–31 | 27% | ✕ | +20.8 |
| 8 | vs  Jets | L38–39 | 56% | ✕ | -12.2 |
| 9 | vs  Bears | L42–47 | 42% | ✓ | -23.3 |
| 11 | L12–34 | 33% | ✓ | -32.2 | |
| 12 | vs  Patriots | L20–26 | 20% | ✓ | -13.8 |
| 13 | W32–14 | 22% | ✕ | +67.5 | |
| 14 | L34–39 | 27% | ✓ | -16.7 | |
| 15 | vs  Ravens | L0–24 | 46% | ✓ | -47.1 |
| 16 | W45–21 | 32% | ✕ | +62.0 | |
| 17 | W37–14 | 64% | ✓ | +27.6 | |
| 18 | vs  Browns | L18–20 | 61% | ✕ | -19.8 |
| Model on 17 games | 10-7(59%) | avg 39% | -94.9 | ||
