NFC South
Carolina Panthers
8-9 in 2025 · 311–380 (-69)
Rating · rank
1461
#23 of 32
2025 final Elo
1453
Offseason move
+7
Model on their games
9-8
Avg win probability
47%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · FOX
vs
Chicago Bears
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
Model win probability
46%
Coin flip · +1.0
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 8.1–9.9
- 5–12 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 37%
- 21% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 3%
- 5% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1512
- 18% top-5 pick
Why CAR rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 8-9 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1453 | 80% | 1162.6 |
Scoring strength 311–380 points (-69.0 differential) → 38.4% expected win rate | 1418 | 5% | 70.9 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1428 | 15% | 214.2 |
Offense / defense split 18.3 PPG scored, 22.4 allowed → offense 1382, defense 1517 | 1399 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1447.7 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1460.8 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| CAR 2026 starting rating | 1461 | ||
Schedule they played
Who CAR actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1507
average opponent rating · 9th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-7
- vs below-average teams
- 5-2
Toughest faced
- Seattle Seahawks1619 · L
- Jacksonville Jaguars1606 · L
- New England Patriots1587 · L
Easiest faced
- Arizona Cardinals1396 · L
- New York Jets1396 · W
- Dallas Cowboys1448 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 14482025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given CAR before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L10–26 | 46% | ✓ | -36.4 | |
| 2 | L22–27 | 38% | ✓ | -18.3 | |
| 3 | vs  Falcons | W30–0 | 43% | ✕ | +55.8 |
| 4 | L13–42 | 52% | ✕ | -49.9 | |
| 5 | vs  Dolphins | W27–24 | 57% | ✓ | +17.6 |
| 6 | vs  Cowboys | W30–27 | 49% | ✕ | +19.0 |
| 7 | @  Jets | W13–6 | 62% | ✓ | +22.2 |
| 8 | vs  Bills | L9–40 | 50% | ✓ | -55.2 |
| 9 | W16–13 | 27% | ✕ | +28.1 | |
| 10 | vs  Saints | L7–17 | 71% | ✕ | -48.3 |
| 11 | W30–27 | 49% | ✕ | +19.7 | |
| 12 | L9–20 | 37% | ✓ | -26.0 | |
| 13 | vs  Rams | W31–28 | 24% | ✕ | +28.7 |
| 15 | L17–20 | 55% | ✕ | -20.4 | |
| 16 | W23–20 | 54% | ✓ | +16.5 | |
| 17 | vs  Seahawks | L10–27 | 29% | ✓ | -28.3 |
| 18 | L14–16 | 48% | ✓ | -15.8 | |
| Model on 17 games | 9-8(53%) | avg 47% | -90.9 | ||
