NFC West
Los Angeles Rams
12-5 in 2025 · 518–346 (+172)
Rating · rank
1555
#7 of 32
2025 final Elo
1568
Offseason move
-14
Model on their games
13-4
Avg win probability
63%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Thu, 8:35 PM EDT · Netflix
Neutral site
San Francisco 49ers
Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
Model win probability
51%
Coin flip · 0.0
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 9.1–8.9
- 6–13 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 51%
- 27% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 4%
- 8% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1496
- 11% top-5 pick
Why LAR rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 12-5 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1568 | 80% | 1254.8 |
Scoring strength 518–346 points (+172.0 differential) → 72.2% expected win rate | 1666 | 5% | 83.3 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1568 | 15% | 235.2 |
Offense / defense split 30.5 PPG scored, 20.4 allowed → offense 1686, defense 1567 | 1753 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1573.3 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1555.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| LAR 2026 starting rating | 1555 | ||
Schedule they played
Who LAR actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1510
average opponent rating · 6th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 6-4
- vs below-average teams
- 6-1
Toughest faced
- Seattle Seahawks1619 · W
- Seattle Seahawks1619 · L
- Jacksonville Jaguars1606 · W
Easiest faced
- Arizona Cardinals1396 · W
- Arizona Cardinals1396 · W
- Tennessee Titans1435 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 15762025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given LAR before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Texans | W14–9 | 54% | ✓ | +23.0 |
| 2 | W33–19 | 53% | ✓ | +35.3 | |
| 3 | L26–33 | 49% | ✓ | -28.4 | |
| 4 | vs  Colts | W27–20 | 47% | ✕ | +31.3 |
| 5 | vs 49ers | L23–26 | 60% | ✕ | -23.1 |
| 6 | W17–3 | 66% | ✓ | +29.1 | |
| 7 | W35–7 | 54% | ✓ | +43.8 | |
| 9 | vs  Saints | W34–10 | 82% | ✓ | +20.4 |
| 10 | W42–26 | 61% | ✓ | +35.5 | |
| 11 | vs  Seahawks | W21–19 | 53% | ✓ | +14.3 |
| 12 | W34–7 | 74% | ✓ | +25.8 | |
| 13 | L28–31 | 76% | ✕ | -28.7 | |
| 14 | W45–17 | 73% | ✓ | +28.4 | |
| 15 | vs  Lions | W41–34 | 64% | ✓ | +21.5 |
| 16 | L37–38 | 46% | ✓ | -8.8 | |
| 17 | L24–27 | 70% | ✕ | -25.1 | |
| 18 | W37–20 | 83% | ✓ | +16.9 | |
| Model on 17 games | 13-4(76%) | avg 63% | +211.3 | ||
