NFC North
Detroit Lions
9-8 in 2025 · 481–413 (+68)
Rating · rank
1498
#17 of 32
2025 final Elo
1493
Offseason move
+4
Model on their games
10-7
Avg win probability
57%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · FOX
vs
New Orleans Saints
Ford Field, Detroit
Model win probability
52%
Coin flip · -0.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 8.6–9.4
- 5–12 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 44%
- 24% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 3%
- 6% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1490
- 14% top-5 pick
Why DET rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 9-8 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1493 | 80% | 1194.8 |
Scoring strength 481–413 points (+68.0 differential) → 58.9% expected win rate | 1563 | 5% | 78.1 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1494 | 15% | 224.1 |
Offense / defense split 28.3 PPG scored, 24.3 allowed → offense 1632, defense 1468 | 1600 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1496.9 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1497.7 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| DET 2026 starting rating | 1498 | ||
Schedule they played
Who DET actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1496
average opponent rating · 22nd toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-5
- vs below-average teams
- 6-3
Toughest faced
- Los Angeles Rams1555 · L
- Minnesota Vikings1551 · L
- Minnesota Vikings1551 · L
Easiest faced
- Kansas City Chiefs1432 · L
- Dallas Cowboys1448 · W
- Washington Commanders1460 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 14932025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given DET before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L13–27 | 46% | ✓ | -34.8 | |
| 2 | vs  Bears | W52–21 | 52% | ✓ | +46.5 |
| 3 | W38–30 | 44% | ✕ | +35.0 | |
| 4 | vs  Browns | W34–10 | 62% | ✓ | +32.6 |
| 5 | W37–24 | 80% | ✓ | +25.4 | |
| 6 | L17–30 | 62% | ✕ | -42.5 | |
| 7 | W24–9 | 57% | ✓ | +37.6 | |
| 9 | vs  Vikings | L24–27 | 73% | ✕ | -28.5 |
| 10 | W44–22 | 66% | ✓ | +34.2 | |
| 11 | L9–16 | 52% | ✕ | -26.7 | |
| 12 | vs  Giants | W34–27 | 76% | ✓ | +16.6 |
| 13 | vs  Packers | L24–31 | 53% | ✕ | -29.8 |
| 14 | vs  Cowboys | W44–30 | 55% | ✓ | +38.4 |
| 15 | @  Rams | L34–41 | 36% | ✓ | -21.5 |
| 16 | vs  Steelers | L24–29 | 57% | ✕ | -26.1 |
| 17 | L10–23 | 50% | ✓ | -31.4 | |
| 18 | W19–16 | 39% | ✕ | +26.8 | |
| Model on 17 games | 10-7(59%) | avg 57% | +51.7 | ||
