NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
3-14 in 2025 · 355–488 (-133)
Rating · rank
1396
#31 of 32
2025 final Elo
1371
Offseason move
+25
Model on their games
12-5
Avg win probability
42%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 4:25 PM EDT · CBS
at
Los Angeles Chargers
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
Model win probability
31%
Confident · +5.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 7.2–10.8
- 4–11 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 25%
- 10% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 1%
- 2% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1509
- 30% top-5 pick
Why ARI rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 3-14 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1371 | 80% | 1096.8 |
Scoring strength 355–488 points (-133.0 differential) → 32.0% expected win rate | 1369 | 5% | 68.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1308 | 15% | 196.1 |
Offense / defense split 20.9 PPG scored, 28.7 allowed → offense 1447, defense 1358 | 1304 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1361.4 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1396.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| ARI 2026 starting rating | 1396 | ||
Schedule they played
Who ARI actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1523
average opponent rating · 2nd toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 1-9
- vs below-average teams
- 2-5
Toughest faced
- Seattle Seahawks1619 · L
- Seattle Seahawks1619 · L
- Jacksonville Jaguars1606 · L
Easiest faced
- Tennessee Titans1435 · L
- Dallas Cowboys1448 · W
- Indianapolis Colts1450 · L
Rating through 2025
1500 → 13572025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given ARI before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | W20–13 | 46% | ✕ | +31.6 | |
| 2 | vs  Panthers | W27–22 | 62% | ✓ | +18.3 |
| 3 | L15–16 | 47% | ✓ | -8.9 | |
| 4 | vs  Seahawks | L20–23 | 51% | ✕ | -19.7 |
| 5 | vs  Titans | L21–22 | 79% | ✕ | -14.3 |
| 6 | L27–31 | 29% | ✓ | -16.2 | |
| 7 | vs  Packers | L23–27 | 43% | ✓ | -20.3 |
| 9 | W27–17 | 44% | ✕ | +39.3 | |
| 10 | L22–44 | 30% | ✓ | -28.7 | |
| 11 | vs  49ers | L22–41 | 52% | ✕ | -43.9 |
| 12 | vs  Jaguars | L24–27 | 41% | ✓ | -15.7 |
| 13 | L17–20 | 43% | ✓ | -16.1 | |
| 14 | vs  Rams | L17–45 | 27% | ✓ | -28.4 |
| 15 | L20–40 | 21% | ✓ | -17.8 | |
| 16 | vs  Falcons | L19–26 | 47% | ✓ | -26.8 |
| 17 | L14–37 | 36% | ✓ | -27.6 | |
| 18 | @ Rams | L20–37 | 17% | ✓ | -16.9 |
| Model on 17 games | 12-5(71%) | avg 42% | -212.3 | ||
