NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
7-9-1 in 2025 · 471–511 (-40)
Rating · rank
1448
#27 of 32
2025 final Elo
1437
Offseason move
+11
Model on their games
8-8
Avg win probability
49%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 8:20 PM EDT · NBC
at
New York Giants
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
Model win probability
41%
Lean · +2.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 8.0–10.0
- 4–12 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 36%
- 22% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 2%
- 4% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1503
- 20% top-5 pick
Why DAL rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 7-9-1 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1437 | 80% | 1149.9 |
Scoring strength 471–511 points (-40.0 differential) → 45.2% expected win rate | 1466 | 5% | 73.3 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1386 | 15% | 207.9 |
Offense / defense split 27.7 PPG scored, 30.1 allowed → offense 1617, defense 1324 | 1441 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1431.1 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1448.3 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| DAL 2026 starting rating | 1448 | ||
Schedule they played
Who DAL actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1476
average opponent rating · 31st toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 1-5
- vs below-average teams
- 6-4-1
Toughest faced
- Denver Broncos1574 · L
- Minnesota Vikings1551 · L
- Chicago Bears1515 · L
Easiest faced
- Las Vegas Raiders1395 · W
- Arizona Cardinals1396 · L
- New York Jets1396 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 14302025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given DAL before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L20–24 | 46% | ✓ | -20.7 | |
| 2 | vs Giants | W40–37 | 56% | ✓ | +17.0 |
| 3 | L14–31 | 55% | ✕ | -44.9 | |
| 4 | vs  Packers | T40–40 | 44% | — | +1.8 |
| 5 | @  Jets | W37–22 | 53% | ✓ | +37.1 |
| 6 | L27–30 | 51% | ✕ | -19.0 | |
| 7 | W44–22 | 43% | ✕ | +46.9 | |
| 8 | L24–44 | 41% | ✓ | -35.0 | |
| 9 | L17–27 | 56% | ✕ | -39.3 | |
| 11 | W33–16 | 56% | ✓ | +40.6 | |
| 12 | vs  Eagles | W24–21 | 43% | ✕ | +22.5 |
| 13 | vs  Chiefs | W31–28 | 45% | ✕ | +19.3 |
| 14 | L30–44 | 45% | ✓ | -38.4 | |
| 15 | vs  Vikings | L26–34 | 59% | ✕ | -37.0 |
| 16 | vs  Chargers | L17–34 | 42% | ✓ | -33.1 |
| 17 | W30–23 | 53% | ✓ | +28.9 | |
| 18 | L17–34 | 53% | ✕ | -41.6 | |
| Model on 17 games | 8-8(50%) | avg 49% | -94.9 | ||
