NFC East
Washington Commanders
5-12 in 2025 · 356–451 (-95)
Rating · rank
1460
#24 of 32
2025 final Elo
1448
Offseason move
+12
Model on their games
11-6
Avg win probability
44%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 4:25 PM EDT · FOX
at
Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Model win probability
41%
Lean · +2.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 8.0–10.0
- 5–12 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 37%
- 22% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 2%
- 4% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1508
- 19% top-5 pick
Why WSH rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 5-12 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1448 | 80% | 1158.2 |
Scoring strength 356–451 points (-95.0 differential) → 36.3% expected win rate | 1403 | 5% | 70.1 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1452 | 15% | 217.8 |
Offense / defense split 20.9 PPG scored, 26.5 allowed → offense 1448, defense 1412 | 1360 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1446.1 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1459.6 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| WSH 2026 starting rating | 1460 | ||
Schedule they played
Who WSH actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1494
average opponent rating · 23rd toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 2-6
- vs below-average teams
- 3-6
Toughest faced
- Seattle Seahawks1619 · L
- Denver Broncos1574 · L
- Minnesota Vikings1551 · L
Easiest faced
- Las Vegas Raiders1395 · W
- Kansas City Chiefs1432 · L
- Dallas Cowboys1448 · L
Rating through 2025
1500 → 14422025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given WSH before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Giants | W21–6 | 54% | ✓ | +35.6 |
| 2 | L18–27 | 47% | ✓ | -29.7 | |
| 3 | vs  Raiders | W41–24 | 55% | ✓ | +35.7 |
| 4 | L27–34 | 55% | ✕ | -32.6 | |
| 5 | W27–10 | 43% | ✕ | +48.4 | |
| 6 | vs  Bears | L24–25 | 67% | ✕ | -12.1 |
| 7 | L22–44 | 57% | ✕ | -46.9 | |
| 8 | L7–28 | 31% | ✓ | -27.9 | |
| 9 | vs  Seahawks | L14–38 | 34% | ✓ | -32.8 |
| 10 | vs  Lions | L22–44 | 34% | ✓ | -34.2 |
| 11 | L13–16 | 41% | ✓ | -14.6 | |
| 13 | vs  Broncos | L26–27 | 27% | ✓ | -5.5 |
| 14 | L0–31 | 46% | ✓ | -45.0 | |
| 15 | W29–21 | 44% | ✕ | +35.6 | |
| 16 | vs Eagles | L18–29 | 36% | ✓ | -27.6 |
| 17 | vs  Cowboys | L23–30 | 47% | ✓ | -28.9 |
| 18 | W24–17 | 24% | ✕ | +46.7 | |
| Model on 17 games | 11-6(65%) | avg 44% | -135.6 | ||
