NFC East
New York Giants
4-13 in 2025 · 381–439 (-58)
Rating · rank
1488
#19 of 32
2025 final Elo
1482
Offseason move
+7
Model on their games
11-6
Avg win probability
40%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 8:20 PM EDT · NBC
vs
Dallas Cowboys
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
Model win probability
59%
Lean · -2.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 8.5–9.5
- 5–12 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 44%
- 28% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 3%
- 6% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1500
- 15% top-5 pick
Why NYG rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 4-13 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1482 | 80% | 1185.6 |
Scoring strength 381–439 points (-58.0 differential) → 41.7% expected win rate | 1442 | 5% | 72.1 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1513 | 15% | 227.0 |
Offense / defense split 22.4 PPG scored, 25.8 allowed → offense 1485, defense 1430 | 1415 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1484.6 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1488.5 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| NYG 2026 starting rating | 1488 | ||
Schedule they played
Who NYG actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1494
average opponent rating · 24th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 2-7
- vs below-average teams
- 2-6
Toughest faced
- New England Patriots1587 · L
- Denver Broncos1574 · L
- San Francisco 49ers1551 · L
Easiest faced
- Las Vegas Raiders1395 · W
- Kansas City Chiefs1432 · L
- Dallas Cowboys1448 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 14802025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given NYG before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L6–21 | 46% | ✓ | -35.6 | |
| 2 | L37–40 | 44% | ✓ | -17.0 | |
| 3 | vs  Chiefs | L9–22 | 53% | ✕ | -39.4 |
| 4 | vs  Chargers | W21–18 | 34% | ✕ | +27.0 |
| 5 | L14–26 | 57% | ✕ | -37.6 | |
| 6 | vs  Eagles | W34–17 | 32% | ✕ | +52.9 |
| 7 | L32–33 | 31% | ✓ | -6.7 | |
| 8 | L20–38 | 38% | ✓ | -32.3 | |
| 9 | vs  49ers | L24–34 | 44% | ✓ | -31.2 |
| 10 | L20–24 | 35% | ✓ | -15.3 | |
| 11 | vs  Packers | L20–27 | 35% | ✓ | -22.3 |
| 12 | L27–34 | 24% | ✓ | -16.6 | |
| 13 | L15–33 | 18% | ✓ | -15.9 | |
| 15 | L21–29 | 56% | ✕ | -35.6 | |
| 16 | vs  Vikings | L13–16 | 36% | ✓ | -13.8 |
| 17 | W34–10 | 52% | ✓ | +46.7 | |
| 18 | vs Cowboys | W34–17 | 47% | ✕ | +41.6 |
| Model on 17 games | 11-6(65%) | avg 40% | -151.1 | ||
