AFC East
Miami Dolphins
7-10 in 2025 · 347–424 (-77)
Rating · rank
1456
#25 of 32
2025 final Elo
1451
Offseason move
+5
Model on their games
10-7
Avg win probability
48%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 4:25 PM EDT · FOX
at
Las Vegas Raiders
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Model win probability
55%
Lean · -1.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 8.1–9.9
- 5–12 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 39%
- 21% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 3%
- 5% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1502
- 18% top-5 pick
Why MIA rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 7-10 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1451 | 80% | 1160.8 |
Scoring strength 347–424 points (-77.0 differential) → 38.3% expected win rate | 1417 | 5% | 70.9 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1400 | 15% | 210.0 |
Offense / defense split 20.4 PPG scored, 24.9 allowed → offense 1435, defense 1452 | 1387 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1441.7 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1456.3 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| MIA 2026 starting rating | 1456 | ||
Schedule they played
Who MIA actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1498
average opponent rating · 18th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-6
- vs below-average teams
- 4-4
Toughest faced
- New England Patriots1587 · L
- New England Patriots1587 · L
- Buffalo Bills1564 · L
Easiest faced
- New York Jets1396 · W
- New York Jets1396 · W
- Indianapolis Colts1450 · L
Rating through 2025
1500 → 14462025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given MIA before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L8–33 | 46% | ✓ | -41.9 | |
| 2 | vs  Patriots | L27–33 | 52% | ✕ | -28.7 |
| 3 | L21–31 | 32% | ✓ | -20.3 | |
| 4 | vs  Jets | W27–21 | 51% | ✓ | +26.4 |
| 5 | L24–27 | 43% | ✓ | -17.6 | |
| 6 | vs  Chargers | L27–29 | 43% | ✓ | -14.6 |
| 7 | L6–31 | 52% | ✕ | -44.1 | |
| 8 | W34–10 | 30% | ✕ | +63.5 | |
| 9 | vs  Ravens | L6–28 | 54% | ✕ | -48.4 |
| 10 | vs  Bills | W30–13 | 26% | ✕ | +57.0 |
| 11 | W16–13 | 59% | ✓ | +14.6 | |
| 13 | vs  Saints | W21–17 | 68% | ✓ | +14.8 |
| 14 | @ Jets | W34–10 | 55% | ✓ | +39.8 |
| 15 | L15–28 | 52% | ✕ | -40.8 | |
| 16 | vs  Bengals | L21–45 | 68% | ✕ | -62.0 |
| 17 | W20–17 | 54% | ✓ | +17.0 | |
| 18 | L10–38 | 25% | ✓ | -26.7 | |
| Model on 17 games | 10-7(59%) | avg 48% | -111.9 | ||
