NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles
11-6 in 2025 · 379–325 (+54)
Rating · rank
1501
#16 of 32
2025 final Elo
1502
Offseason move
-2
Model on their games
7-10
Avg win probability
55%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 4:25 PM EDT · FOX
vs
Washington Commanders
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Model win probability
59%
Lean · -2.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 8.6–9.4
- 5–12 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 46%
- 29% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 3%
- 7% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1499
- 14% top-5 pick
Why PHI rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 11-6 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1502 | 80% | 1201.7 |
Scoring strength 379–325 points (+54.0 differential) → 59.0% expected win rate | 1563 | 5% | 78.2 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1473 | 15% | 220.9 |
Offense / defense split 22.3 PPG scored, 19.1 allowed → offense 1482, defense 1597 | 1579 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1500.8 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1500.6 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| PHI 2026 starting rating | 1501 | ||
Schedule they played
Who PHI actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1489
average opponent rating · 28th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-3
- vs below-average teams
- 8-3
Toughest faced
- Denver Broncos1574 · L
- Buffalo Bills1564 · W
- Los Angeles Rams1555 · W
Easiest faced
- Las Vegas Raiders1395 · W
- Kansas City Chiefs1432 · W
- Dallas Cowboys1448 · L
Rating through 2025
1500 → 15022025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given PHI before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Cowboys | W24–20 | 54% | ✓ | +20.7 |
| 2 | W20–17 | 53% | ✓ | +18.3 | |
| 3 | vs  Rams | W33–26 | 51% | ✓ | +28.4 |
| 4 | W31–25 | 50% | ✕ | +27.4 | |
| 5 | vs  Broncos | L17–21 | 56% | ✕ | -27.5 |
| 6 | L17–34 | 68% | ✕ | -52.9 | |
| 7 | W28–22 | 39% | ✕ | +32.3 | |
| 8 | vs  Giants | W38–20 | 62% | ✓ | +32.3 |
| 10 | W10–7 | 44% | ✕ | +21.1 | |
| 11 | vs  Lions | W16–9 | 48% | ✕ | +26.7 |
| 12 | L21–24 | 57% | ✕ | -22.5 | |
| 13 | vs  Bears | L15–24 | 57% | ✕ | -35.6 |
| 14 | L19–22 | 45% | ✓ | -17.1 | |
| 15 | vs  Raiders | W31–0 | 75% | ✓ | +27.4 |
| 16 | W29–18 | 64% | ✓ | +27.6 | |
| 17 | W13–12 | 40% | ✕ | +12.0 | |
| 18 | L17–24 | 76% | ✕ | -46.7 | |
| Model on 17 games | 7-10(41%) | avg 55% | +71.6 | ||
