NFC West
Seattle Seahawks
14-3 in 2025 · 483–292 (+191)
Rating · rank
1619
#1 of 32
2025 final Elo
1643
Offseason move
-24
Model on their games
12-5
Avg win probability
62%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Wed, 8:20 PM EDT · NBC
vs
New England Patriots
Lumen Field, Seattle
Model win probability
58%
Lean · -2.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 9.9–8.1
- 6–13 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 62%
- 38% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 5%
- 13% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1492
- 6% top-5 pick
Why SEA rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 14-3 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1643 | 80% | 1314.2 |
Scoring strength 483–292 points (+191.0 differential) → 76.7% expected win rate | 1707 | 5% | 85.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1724 | 15% | 258.6 |
Offense / defense split 28.4 PPG scored, 17.2 allowed → offense 1635, defense 1646 | 1781 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1658.2 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1618.6 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| SEA 2026 starting rating | 1619 | ||
Schedule they played
Who SEA actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1503
average opponent rating · 13th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 8-2
- vs below-average teams
- 6-1
Toughest faced
- Jacksonville Jaguars1606 · W
- Houston Texans1588 · W
- Los Angeles Rams1555 · L
Easiest faced
- Arizona Cardinals1396 · W
- Arizona Cardinals1396 · W
- Tennessee Titans1435 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 16592025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given SEA before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  49ers | L13–17 | 54% | ✕ | -24.4 |
| 2 | W31–17 | 41% | ✕ | +45.9 | |
| 3 | vs  Saints | W44–13 | 63% | ✓ | +34.4 |
| 4 | W23–20 | 49% | ✕ | +19.7 | |
| 5 | L35–38 | 69% | ✕ | -24.9 | |
| 6 | W20–12 | 46% | ✕ | +36.3 | |
| 7 | vs  Texans | W27–19 | 56% | ✓ | +25.3 |
| 9 | W38–14 | 66% | ✓ | +32.8 | |
| 10 | W44–22 | 70% | ✓ | +28.7 | |
| 11 | @  Rams | L19–21 | 47% | ✓ | -14.3 |
| 12 | W30–24 | 82% | ✓ | +13.7 | |
| 13 | vs  Vikings | W26–0 | 78% | ✓ | +21.7 |
| 14 | W37–9 | 73% | ✓ | +29.8 | |
| 15 | vs  Colts | W18–16 | 72% | ✓ | +8.1 |
| 16 | vs Rams | W38–37 | 54% | ✓ | +8.8 |
| 17 | W27–10 | 71% | ✓ | +28.3 | |
| 18 | W13–3 | 54% | ✓ | +34.4 | |
| Model on 17 games | 12-5(71%) | avg 62% | +304.2 | ||
