AFC West
Los Angeles Chargers
11-6 in 2025 · 368–340 (+28)
Rating · rank
1507
#15 of 32
2025 final Elo
1511
Offseason move
-4
Model on their games
11-6
Avg win probability
55%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 4:25 PM EDT · CBS
vs
Arizona Cardinals
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
Model win probability
69%
Confident · -5.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 8.6–9.4
- 5–12 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 46%
- 27% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 3%
- 6% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1500
- 14% top-5 pick
Why LAC rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 11-6 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1511 | 80% | 1208.5 |
Scoring strength 368–340 points (+28.0 differential) → 54.7% expected win rate | 1533 | 5% | 76.6 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1495 | 15% | 224.3 |
Offense / defense split 21.6 PPG scored, 20.0 allowed → offense 1466, defense 1575 | 1541 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1509.4 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1507.1 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| LAC 2026 starting rating | 1507 | ||
Schedule they played
Who LAC actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1488
average opponent rating · 29th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-3
- vs below-average teams
- 7-3
Toughest faced
- Jacksonville Jaguars1606 · L
- Houston Texans1588 · L
- Denver Broncos1574 · W
Easiest faced
- Las Vegas Raiders1395 · W
- Las Vegas Raiders1395 · W
- Kansas City Chiefs1432 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 15122025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given LAC before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | W27–21 | 50% | ✓ | +27.2 | |
| 2 | W20–9 | 46% | ✕ | +38.2 | |
| 3 | vs  Broncos | W23–20 | 59% | ✓ | +15.3 |
| 4 | L18–21 | 66% | ✕ | -27.0 | |
| 5 | L10–27 | 57% | ✕ | -48.4 | |
| 6 | W29–27 | 57% | ✓ | +14.6 | |
| 7 | vs  Colts | L24–38 | 35% | ✓ | -32.7 |
| 8 | vs  Vikings | W37–10 | 47% | ✕ | +45.4 |
| 9 | W27–20 | 74% | ✓ | +19.4 | |
| 10 | vs  Steelers | W25–10 | 56% | ✓ | +34.6 |
| 11 | L6–35 | 61% | ✕ | -57.7 | |
| 13 | vs  Raiders | W31–14 | 74% | ✓ | +23.0 |
| 14 | vs  Eagles | W22–19 | 55% | ✓ | +17.1 |
| 15 | W16–13 | 48% | ✕ | +18.4 | |
| 16 | W34–17 | 58% | ✓ | +33.1 | |
| 17 | vs  Texans | L16–20 | 48% | ✓ | -22.8 |
| 18 | L3–19 | 42% | ✓ | -33.5 | |
| Model on 17 games | 11-6(65%) | avg 55% | +64.3 | ||
