NFC North
Minnesota Vikings
9-8 in 2025 · 344–333 (+11)
Rating · rank
1551
#9 of 32
2025 final Elo
1562
Offseason move
-11
Model on their games
8-9
Avg win probability
49%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 4:25 PM EDT · CBS
vs
Green Bay Packers
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Model win probability
65%
Confident · -4.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 9.2–8.8
- 6–13 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 52%
- 31% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 4%
- 9% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1492
- 10% top-5 pick
Why MIN rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 9-8 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1562 | 80% | 1249.4 |
Scoring strength 344–333 points (+11.0 differential) → 51.9% expected win rate | 1513 | 5% | 75.7 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1618 | 15% | 242.8 |
Offense / defense split 20.2 PPG scored, 19.6 allowed → offense 1431, defense 1586 | 1516 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1567.8 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1550.9 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| MIN 2026 starting rating | 1551 | ||
Schedule they played
Who MIN actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1501
average opponent rating · 15th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 1-7
- vs below-average teams
- 8-1
Toughest faced
- Seattle Seahawks1619 · L
- Baltimore Ravens1519 · L
- Pittsburgh Steelers1518 · L
Easiest faced
- Dallas Cowboys1448 · W
- Washington Commanders1460 · W
- Green Bay Packers1467 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 15692025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given MIN before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | W27–24 | 46% | ✕ | +21.0 | |
| 2 | vs  Falcons | L6–22 | 59% | ✕ | -48.1 |
| 3 | vs  Bengals | W48–10 | 46% | ✕ | +56.5 |
| 4 | L21–24 | 53% | ✕ | -20.8 | |
| 5 | W21–17 | 70% | ✓ | +18.7 | |
| 7 | vs  Eagles | L22–28 | 61% | ✕ | -32.3 |
| 8 | L10–37 | 53% | ✕ | -45.4 | |
| 9 | W27–24 | 27% | ✕ | +28.5 | |
| 10 | vs  Ravens | L19–27 | 51% | ✕ | -29.8 |
| 11 | vs  Bears | L17–19 | 46% | ✓ | -13.4 |
| 12 | L6–23 | 32% | ✓ | -26.1 | |
| 13 | L0–26 | 22% | ✓ | -21.7 | |
| 14 | W31–0 | 54% | ✓ | +45.0 | |
| 15 | W34–26 | 41% | ✕ | +37.0 | |
| 16 | W16–13 | 64% | ✓ | +13.8 | |
| 17 | vs  Lions | W23–10 | 50% | ✓ | +31.4 |
| 18 | vs Packers | W16–3 | 57% | ✓ | +27.3 |
| Model on 17 games | 8-9(47%) | avg 49% | +41.5 | ||
