AFC East
New England Patriots
14-3 in 2025 · 490–320 (+170)
Rating · rank
1587
#4 of 32
2025 final Elo
1607
Offseason move
-21
Model on their games
11-6
Avg win probability
65%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Wed, 8:20 PM EDT · NBC
at
Seattle Seahawks
Lumen Field, Seattle
Model win probability
42%
Lean · +2.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 9.3–8.8
- 6–13 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 55%
- 34% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 4%
- 10% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1501
- 10% top-5 pick
Why NE rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 14-3 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1607 | 80% | 1285.9 |
Scoring strength 490–320 points (+170.0 differential) → 73.3% expected win rate | 1675 | 5% | 83.8 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1641 | 15% | 246.1 |
Offense / defense split 28.8 PPG scored, 18.8 allowed → offense 1645, defense 1605 | 1750 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1615.8 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1586.8 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| NE 2026 starting rating | 1587 | ||
Schedule they played
Who NE actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1477
average opponent rating · 30th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-2
- vs below-average teams
- 10-1
Toughest faced
- Buffalo Bills1564 · W
- Buffalo Bills1564 · L
- Baltimore Ravens1519 · W
Easiest faced
- Las Vegas Raiders1395 · L
- New York Jets1396 · W
- New York Jets1396 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 16192025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given NE before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Raiders | L13–20 | 54% | ✕ | -31.6 |
| 2 | W33–27 | 48% | ✕ | +28.7 | |
| 3 | vs  Steelers | L14–21 | 58% | ✕ | -34.4 |
| 4 | vs  Panthers | W42–13 | 48% | ✕ | +49.9 |
| 5 | W23–20 | 36% | ✕ | +24.6 | |
| 6 | W25–19 | 66% | ✓ | +22.6 | |
| 7 | W31–13 | 76% | ✓ | +25.1 | |
| 8 | vs  Browns | W32–13 | 74% | ✓ | +26.0 |
| 9 | vs  Falcons | W24–23 | 78% | ✓ | +5.0 |
| 10 | W28–23 | 56% | ✓ | +23.5 | |
| 11 | vs  Jets | W27–14 | 77% | ✓ | +19.3 |
| 12 | W26–20 | 80% | ✓ | +13.8 | |
| 13 | vs  Giants | W33–15 | 82% | ✓ | +15.9 |
| 15 | vs  Bills | L31–35 | 59% | ✕ | -26.8 |
| 16 | W28–24 | 57% | ✓ | +21.0 | |
| 17 | @ Jets | W42–10 | 78% | ✓ | +25.9 |
| 18 | vs  Dolphins | W38–10 | 75% | ✓ | +26.7 |
| Model on 17 games | 11-6(65%) | avg 65% | +235.0 | ||
