AFC East
New York Jets
3-14 in 2025 · 300–503 (-203)
Rating · rank
1396
#30 of 32
2025 final Elo
1373
Offseason move
+23
Model on their games
13-4
Avg win probability
37%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · CBS
at
Tennessee Titans
Nissan Stadium, Nashville
Model win probability
41%
Lean · +2.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 7.5–10.5
- 4–11 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 30%
- 15% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 2%
- 3% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1498
- 25% top-5 pick
Why NYJ rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 3-14 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1373 | 80% | 1098.6 |
Scoring strength 300–503 points (-203.0 differential) → 22.7% expected win rate | 1287 | 5% | 64.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1324 | 15% | 198.6 |
Offense / defense split 17.6 PPG scored, 29.6 allowed → offense 1366, defense 1336 | 1201 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1361.6 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1396.2 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| NYJ 2026 starting rating | 1396 | ||
Schedule they played
Who NYJ actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1518
average opponent rating · 3rd toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 1-9
- vs below-average teams
- 2-5
Toughest faced
- Jacksonville Jaguars1606 · L
- New England Patriots1587 · L
- New England Patriots1587 · L
Easiest faced
- Dallas Cowboys1448 · L
- Miami Dolphins1456 · L
- Miami Dolphins1456 · L
Rating through 2025
1500 → 13592025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given NYJ before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Steelers | L32–34 | 54% | ✕ | -16.7 |
| 2 | vs  Bills | L10–30 | 50% | ✕ | -42.9 |
| 3 | L27–29 | 36% | ✓ | -10.5 | |
| 4 | L21–27 | 49% | ✓ | -26.4 | |
| 5 | vs  Cowboys | L22–37 | 47% | ✓ | -37.1 |
| 6 | L11–13 | 23% | ✓ | -8.3 | |
| 7 | vs  Panthers | L6–13 | 38% | ✓ | -22.2 |
| 8 | W39–38 | 44% | ✕ | +12.2 | |
| 10 | vs  Browns | W27–20 | 51% | ✓ | +29.9 |
| 11 | L14–27 | 23% | ✓ | -19.3 | |
| 12 | L10–23 | 30% | ✓ | -21.8 | |
| 13 | vs  Falcons | W27–24 | 46% | ✕ | +20.5 |
| 14 | vs  Dolphins | L10–34 | 45% | ✓ | -39.8 |
| 15 | L20–48 | 23% | ✓ | -22.6 | |
| 16 | L6–29 | 39% | ✓ | -32.6 | |
| 17 | vs  Patriots | L10–42 | 22% | ✓ | -25.9 |
| 18 | L8–35 | 17% | ✓ | -19.3 | |
| Model on 17 games | 13-4(76%) | avg 37% | -282.6 | ||
