NFC North
Green Bay Packers
9-7-1 in 2025 · 391–360 (+31)
Rating · rank
1467
#21 of 32
2025 final Elo
1461
Offseason move
+6
Model on their games
11-5
Avg win probability
58%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 4:25 PM EDT · CBS
at
Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Model win probability
35%
Confident · +4.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 8.2–9.8
- 5–12 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 38%
- 20% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 3%
- 5% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1510
- 18% top-5 pick
Why GB rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 9-7-1 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1461 | 80% | 1168.7 |
Scoring strength 391–360 points (+31.0 differential) → 54.9% expected win rate | 1534 | 5% | 76.7 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1406 | 15% | 210.9 |
Offense / defense split 23.0 PPG scored, 21.2 allowed → offense 1500, defense 1546 | 1546 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1456.3 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1467.2 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| GB 2026 starting rating | 1467 | ||
Schedule they played
Who GB actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1498
average opponent rating · 19th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-5
- vs below-average teams
- 6-2-1
Toughest faced
- Denver Broncos1574 · L
- Minnesota Vikings1551 · W
- Minnesota Vikings1551 · L
Easiest faced
- Arizona Cardinals1396 · W
- Dallas Cowboys1448 · T
- Washington Commanders1460 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 14572025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given GB before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Lions | W27–13 | 54% | ✓ | +34.8 |
| 2 | W27–18 | 53% | ✓ | +29.7 | |
| 3 | L10–13 | 61% | ✕ | -24.4 | |
| 4 | T40–40 | 56% | — | -1.8 | |
| 6 | vs  Bengals | W27–18 | 78% | ✓ | +20.4 |
| 7 | W27–23 | 57% | ✓ | +20.3 | |
| 8 | W35–25 | 53% | ✓ | +32.8 | |
| 9 | vs  Panthers | L13–16 | 73% | ✕ | -28.1 |
| 10 | vs  Eagles | L7–10 | 56% | ✕ | -21.1 |
| 11 | W27–20 | 65% | ✓ | +22.3 | |
| 12 | vs Vikings | W23–6 | 68% | ✓ | +26.1 |
| 13 | W31–24 | 47% | ✕ | +29.8 | |
| 14 | vs  Bears | W28–21 | 59% | ✓ | +25.9 |
| 15 | L26–34 | 47% | ✓ | -29.0 | |
| 16 | L16–22 | 49% | ✓ | -24.9 | |
| 17 | vs  Ravens | L24–41 | 60% | ✕ | -48.3 |
| 18 | L3–16 | 43% | ✓ | -27.3 | |
| Model on 17 games | 11-5(69%) | avg 58% | +37.2 | ||
