NFC North
Chicago Bears
11-6 in 2025 · 441–415 (+26)
Rating · rank
1515
#12 of 32
2025 final Elo
1523
Offseason move
-7
Model on their games
11-6
Avg win probability
53%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · FOX
at
Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
Model win probability
54%
Coin flip · -1.0
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 8.6–9.4
- 5–12 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 44%
- 25% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 3%
- 6% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1512
- 14% top-5 pick
Why CHI rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 11-6 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1523 | 80% | 1218.0 |
Scoring strength 441–415 points (+26.0 differential) → 53.6% expected win rate | 1525 | 5% | 76.3 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1509 | 15% | 226.3 |
Offense / defense split 25.9 PPG scored, 24.4 allowed → offense 1573, defense 1465 | 1538 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1520.6 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1515.5 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| CHI 2026 starting rating | 1515 | ||
Schedule they played
Who CHI actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1494
average opponent rating · 25th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-3
- vs below-average teams
- 7-3
Toughest faced
- San Francisco 49ers1551 · L
- Minnesota Vikings1551 · L
- Minnesota Vikings1551 · W
Easiest faced
- Las Vegas Raiders1395 · W
- Dallas Cowboys1448 · W
- Washington Commanders1460 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 15252025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given CHI before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Vikings | L24–27 | 54% | ✕ | -21.0 |
| 2 | L21–52 | 48% | ✓ | -46.5 | |
| 3 | vs  Cowboys | W31–14 | 45% | ✕ | +44.9 |
| 4 | W25–24 | 50% | ✓ | +9.6 | |
| 6 | W25–24 | 33% | ✕ | +12.1 | |
| 7 | vs  Saints | W26–14 | 65% | ✓ | +25.7 |
| 8 | L16–30 | 66% | ✕ | -49.8 | |
| 9 | W47–42 | 58% | ✓ | +23.3 | |
| 10 | vs  Giants | W24–20 | 65% | ✓ | +15.3 |
| 11 | W19–17 | 54% | ✓ | +13.4 | |
| 12 | vs  Steelers | W31–28 | 53% | ✓ | +17.2 |
| 13 | W24–15 | 43% | ✕ | +35.6 | |
| 14 | L21–28 | 41% | ✓ | -25.9 | |
| 15 | vs  Browns | W31–3 | 70% | ✓ | +27.6 |
| 16 | vs  Packers | W22–16 | 51% | ✓ | +24.9 |
| 17 | L38–42 | 42% | ✓ | -19.1 | |
| 18 | vs  Lions | L16–19 | 61% | ✕ | -26.8 |
| Model on 17 games | 11-6(65%) | avg 53% | +60.6 | ||
