Why the model has Seattle No. 1 going into 2026
Seattle opens 2026 at 1619 Elo, the highest rating in the league. Here is exactly which parts of a 14-3 season produced that number — and what would knock it down.
The Seahawks start the 2026 season with a rating of 1619, the highest in the league and 13 points clear of Jacksonville in second. That is not a preseason opinion or a hype ranking. It is what came out the other end of replaying every 2025 game, one at a time, and then applying the offseason regression every team gets.
Because the rating is built rather than voted on, it can be taken apart. Seattle's 1619 is the blend of four measured pieces: the Elo carried out of last season (80% of the weight), a Pythagorean term built from points scored and allowed (5%), a form term weighted toward the closing six games (15%), and a hand-set roster adjustment (currently zero for Seattle — nobody put a thumb on this scale).
A 14-3 record that the underlying numbers agreed with
Plenty of 14-win teams are frauds: they win six one-score games, the record looks elite, and the following September the bottom falls out. The model is deliberately hard to fool here, because Elo updates on margin of victory, not on the win itself. A three-point win over a bad team moves a rating by a couple of points. A three-score win over a good team moves it a lot.
Seattle's 14-3 held up on both tests. The Pythagorean term — which asks what record the points scored and allowed imply — landed close to the actual record rather than well below it, and the form term, which double-weights the last six games, came in above the season average. A team that finishes strong against a normal schedule is the exact profile the blend rewards.
What the top of the board looks like
| Rank | Team | 2026 opening Elo | 2025 record | Proj. wins | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seahawks | 1619 | 14-3 | 9.9 | 62% |
| 2 | Jaguars | 1606 | 13-4 | 9.4 | 55% |
| 3 | Texans | 1588 | 12-5 | 9.4 | 57% |
| 4 | Patriots | 1587 | 14-3 | 9.3 | 55% |
| 5 | Broncos | 1574 | 14-3 | 9.2 | 56% |
Notice how compressed that is. First place to fifth place is 45 rating points, which the win-probability curve converts to roughly a 56% edge on a neutral field. In other words: the model says Seattle is the best team in football and also that Seattle would be barely better than a coin flip against Denver. Both statements are true at the same time, and holding them together is most of what separates a rating system from a hot take.
Why No. 1 is worth less than it sounds
Seattle projects to 9.9 wins and a 62% chance of making the playoffs — the best marks in the league, and still nowhere near a lock. Two things drag every top team back toward the pack. First, offseason regression pulls a quarter of the distance to 1500 for everyone, so last year's separation is deliberately shrunk. Second, the schedule: Seattle's remaining strength of schedule sits at 1492, essentially league-average, which means there is no soft path being handed out with the top rating.
The rating says Seattle is the best bet to be the best team. It does not say Seattle will be.
What would move it
- A pair of double-digit losses in September. Margin is what feeds Elo, so two blowouts move the rating far more than two narrow defeats.
- Beating the teams directly behind them. Wins over the Jaguars, Texans and Broncos transfer points from the chasers, which is worth roughly double a win over a 1450 team.
- Nothing off the field. The model has no knowledge of trades, holdouts or injuries. When those happen, the correction only arrives through results — a real limitation, and one worth stating plainly.
Every one of those movements is visible week to week on the ratings history page, where each team's line is drawn game by game rather than reset by opinion.