Ratings history
Five seasons of Elo, week by week
Every team starts at 1500 in 2021 and is replayed forward through the same engine that prices this week's games: each result moves the rating by up to K = 28 points, scaled by margin of victory and by how surprising the result was, with 25 points of home field priced in before kickoff. Ratings bleed 10% back toward 1500 every week, then regress a further 25% in the offseason — the visible step between seasons on the chart.
No history has been built yet. Run the ratings-history rebuild from the admin page.
Reading the history
- The dashed line is 1500 — league average. Anything above it is an above-average team on the model's read.
- Vertical dividers are new seasons. Ratings do not reset; they carry over regressed 25% toward 1500.
- Flat stretches are bye weeks and the weekly decay toward the mean, not missing data.
Want the current numbers instead? See the ratings board or the plain-English walkthrough.