Analysis
NFL analysis, with the math shown
Every article here is built from the same ratings, backtests and simulations that power the rest of the site. Where a number is quoted, the page it came from is one click away.
Where the model disagrees with the Week 1 betting board
Four Week 1 games where the model's spread is more than two points away from the posted line — including a five-point gap on Chargers-Cardinals.
Read the analysis- Betting Math
Turning win probability into a spread
The model prices every game as a percentage first and a spread second. The conversion is one division — and understanding it tells you when a number disagrees with the market.
5 min read - Ratings
Offense vs defense: splitting the ratings
The Rams have the league's best offensive rating at 1686 and the Seahawks the best defensive rating at 1646. Only one team is top five in both.
5 min read - Season Preview
Reading the 2026 playoff odds
The forecast runs the full 2026 schedule 10,000 times. The results say the league is flatter than the ratings board suggests — and that nobody is above a 62% playoff shot.
6 min read - Ratings
Closing form: who finished 2025 hot
The model weights the last six games more heavily than the first eleven. Seattle closed 81 points above its season rating; Kansas City closed 85 points below.
4 min read - Model
What a 64% backtest actually means
The model called 64% of 2025 games correctly with a Brier score of 0.222. Here is why that is good, why it is not impressive, and which number to watch instead.
6 min read - Season Preview
2026 strength of schedule, measured
Carolina faces the hardest slate at 1512 average opponent rating and New Orleans the easiest at 1482. That 30-point spread is worth well under one win.
4 min read - Model
Home field is worth 25 points, not 65
Re-fitting home field on real results moved it from 55 rating points to 25 — barely a point of spread. What the 2025 data actually shows about playing at home.
5 min read - Ratings
The Chiefs open 29th — the math behind it
Kansas City starts 2026 at 1432 Elo, 29th in the league, after a 6-11 season. A look at how a dynasty rating decays, and why the model refuses to grade on reputation.
5 min read - Ratings
Why Seattle is the model's No. 1 team
Seattle opens 2026 at 1619 Elo, the highest rating in the league. Here is exactly which parts of a 14-3 season produced that number — and what would knock it down.
6 min read