Fantasy football
NFL fantasy draft guide
Every number below comes from the same projections and team ratings that drive our game predictions — where the value sits by position, who the market is underrating, and which offenses have the friendliest schedule. Tuned to a 10-team PPR league.
Position by position
Tiers are drawn where projected points fall off a cliff, not by gut feel.
Running back
25 rostered as starters in a 10-team league
The gap between Jahmyr Gibbs and a replacement RB is 171 points — about 10.1 a week. This is a position worth paying up for; the top tier of 1 is where the real edge sits. Managers start taking them around round 1.
- Elite edge
- 171 pts
- Best vs replacement
- Starter cliff
- 4 pts
- Last starter vs next
- Run starts
- Round 1
- From market ADP
- Tiers
- 5
- Before the pool flattens
Tier 1
- Jahmyr Gibbs det · bye 6365 pts · ADP 1
Tier 2
- Bijan Robinson atl · bye 11353 pts · ADP 2
Tier 3
- Christian McCaffrey sf · bye 8342 pts · ADP 8
Tier 4
- Jonathan Taylor ind · bye 13316 pts · ADP 6
Tier 5
- De'Von Achane mia · bye 6294 pts · ADP 12
- James Cook III buf · bye 7280 pts · ADP 11
- Ashton Jeanty lv · bye 13279 pts · ADP 21
- Derrick Henry bal · bye 13278 pts · ADP 17
- Jeremiyah Love ari · bye 14276 pts · ADP 26
- Breece Hall nyj · bye 13274 pts · ADP 36
- Saquon Barkley phi · bye 10273 pts · ADP 14
- Kenneth Walker III kc · bye 5273 pts · ADP 25
- Chase Brown cin · bye 6272 pts · ADP 18
- Omarion Hampton lac · bye 7262 pts · ADP 20
- Javonte Williams dal · bye 14259 pts · ADP 34
- Travis Etienne Jr. no · bye 8247 pts · ADP 42
- Kyren Williams lar · bye 11232 pts · ADP 37
- Cam Skattebo nyg · bye 8227 pts · ADP 45
- Quinshon Judkins cle · bye 11227 pts · ADP 50
- D'Andre Swift chi · bye 10210 pts · ADP 55
- Bucky Irving tb · bye 10207 pts · ADP 57
- Bhayshul Tuten jax · bye 7205 pts · ADP 64
- Rhamondre Stevenson ne · bye 11203 pts · ADP 80
- David Montgomery hou · bye 8200 pts · ADP 64
Sleepers and value picks
Players our projections rank well ahead of their average draft position. The gap is how many picks of value you bank by waiting.
Daniel Jones QB · ind · bye 13
+122 picksProjected like a round 4 pick, drafted around round 16 · 37% rostered
266 projected points · ADP 160
Jordan Love QB · gb · bye 11
+115 picksProjected like a round 5 pick, drafted around round 16 · 38% rostered
263 projected points · ADP 156
C.J. Stroud QB · hou · bye 8
+115 picksProjected like a round 5 pick, drafted around round 17 · 23% rostered
246 projected points · ADP 165
Kyler Murray QB · min · bye 6
+114 picksProjected like a round 3 pick, drafted around round 14
283 projected points · ADP 140
Tyler Shough QB · no · bye 8
+114 picksProjected like a round 4 pick, drafted around round 16 · 47% rostered
265 projected points · ADP 153
Malik Willis QB · mia · bye 6
+113 picksProjected like a round 6 pick, drafted around round 17 · 20% rostered
239 projected points · ADP 168
Sam Darnold QB · sea · bye 11
+110 picksProjected like a round 6 pick, drafted around round 17 · 26% rostered
242 projected points · ADP 162
Bryce Young QB · car · bye 5
+110 picksProjected like a round 6 pick, drafted around round 17 · 10% rostered
238 projected points · ADP 169
Geno Smith QB · nyj · bye 13
+109 picksProjected like a round 7 pick, drafted around round 18 · 4% rostered
233 projected points · ADP 170
Baker Mayfield QB · tb · bye 10
+106 picksProjected like a round 4 pick, drafted around round 15 · 56% rostered
265 projected points · ADP 146
Cam Ward QB · ten · bye 9
+101 picksProjected like a round 7 pick, drafted around round 17 · 10% rostered
219 projected points · ADP 169
Jared Goff QB · det · bye 6
+99 picksProjected like a round 4 pick, drafted around round 14
269 projected points · ADP 136
Matchup chart, weeks 1–17
Each cell scores how friendly the opponent's defense is for fantasy offense, from our defensive ratings, with a small road adjustment. Greener is easier. Teams are sorted by the friendliest full-season schedule.
| Offense | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | Season | Wk 15–17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| phi | wsh | @ten | @chi | lar | @jax | car | dal | @wsh | nyg | BYE | pit | @dal | @ari | ind | sea | hou | @sf | 54 | 13 |
| cle | @jax | @tb | car | pit | @nyj | bal | @ten | @pit | @no | hou | BYE | lv | cin | atl | @nyg | @bal | ind | 53 | 56 |
| ten | nyj | phi | @nyg | @bal | hou | @ind | cle | @cin | BYE | jax | @dal | @jax | wsh | @det | ind | @lv | pit | 53 | 55 |
| no | @det | @bal | lv | atl | min | @nyg | pit | BYE | cle | car | @chi | @cin | gb | @car | @tb | ari | @atl | 52 | 63 |
| det | no | @buf | nyj | @car | @ari | BYE | gb | min | @mia | ne | tb | chi | @atl | ten | @min | nyg | @chi | 51 | 46 |
| nyg | dal | @lar | ten | ari | @wsh | no | @hou | BYE | @phi | wsh | jax | @ind | sf | @sea | cle | @det | @dal | 51 | 64 |
| bal | @ind | no | @dal | ten | @atl | @cle | cin | @buf | jax | lac | @car | @hou | BYE | tb | @pit | cle | @cin | 50 | 57 |
| hou | buf | cin | @ind | dal | @ten | @jax | nyg | BYE | @lac | @cle | ind | bal | @pit | @wsh | jax | @phi | @gb | 49 | 21 |
| jax | cle | @den | ne | @cin | phi | hou | BYE | ind | @bal | @ten | @nyg | ten | @chi | pit | @hou | @dal | wsh | 49 | 58 |
| min | gb | @chi | @tb | mia | @no | BYE | ind | @det | buf | @gb | @sf | atl | car | @ne | det | wsh | @nyj | 49 | 76 |
| atl | @pit | car | @gb | @no | bal | chi | sf | @tb | cin | kc | BYE | @min | det | @cle | @wsh | tb | no | 47 | 57 |
| ind | bal | @kc | hou | @wsh | @pit | ten | @min | @jax | dal | mia | @hou | nyg | BYE | @phi | @ten | cin | @cle | 47 | 71 |
| sea | ne | @ari | @wsh | lac | sf | @den | kc | chi | ari | @lv | BYE | @sf | dal | nyg | @phi | lar | @car | 47 | 26 |
| tb | @cin | cle | min | gb | @dal | pit | @car | atl | @chi | BYE | @det | car | lac | @bal | no | @atl | lar | 47 | 40 |
| lar | sf | nyg | @den | @phi | buf | ari | @lv | lac | @wsh | @ari | BYE | gb | kc | @sf | dal | @sea | @tb | 46 | 50 |
| wsh | @phi | @dal | sea | ind | nyg | @sf | BYE | phi | lar | @nyg | cin | @ari | @ten | hou | atl | @min | @jax | 46 | 29 |
| cin | tb | @hou | @pit | jax | @mia | BYE | @bal | ten | @atl | pit | @wsh | no | @cle | kc | @car | @ind | bal | 45 | 47 |
| gb | @min | @nyj | atl | @tb | chi | dal | @det | car | @ne | min | BYE | @lar | @no | buf | mia | @chi | hou | 45 | 40 |
| mia | @lv | @sf | kc | @min | cin | BYE | @nyj | ne | det | @ind | @buf | nyj | @den | chi | @gb | lac | buf | 45 | 30 |
| dal | @nyg | wsh | bal | @hou | tb | @gb | @phi | ari | @ind | sf | ten | phi | @sea | BYE | @lar | jax | nyg | 43 | 38 |
| pit | atl | @ne | cin | @cle | ind | @tb | @no | cle | BYE | @cin | @phi | den | hou | @jax | bal | car | @ten | 43 | 59 |
| kc | den | ind | @mia | @lv | BYE | lac | @sea | @den | nyj | @atl | ari | @buf | @lar | @cin | ne | sf | @lac | 42 | 25 |
| nyj | @ten | gb | @det | @chi | cle | @ne | mia | lv | @kc | buf | @lac | @mia | BYE | den | @ari | ne | min | 42 | 41 |
| ari | @lac | sea | @sf | @nyg | det | @lar | den | @dal | @sea | lar | @kc | wsh | phi | BYE | nyj | @no | lv | 41 | 68 |
| car | chi | @atl | @cle | det | BYE | @phi | tb | @gb | den | @no | bal | @tb | @min | no | cin | @pit | sea | 41 | 46 |
| ne | @sea | pit | @jax | @buf | lv | nyj | @chi | @mia | gb | @det | BYE | @lac | buf | min | @kc | @nyj | den | 41 | 39 |
| sf | @lar | mia | ari | den | @sea | wsh | @atl | BYE | lv | @dal | min | sea | @nyg | lar | @lac | @kc | phi | 40 | 17 |
| chi | @car | min | phi | nyj | @gb | @atl | ne | @sea | tb | BYE | no | @det | jax | @mia | @buf | gb | det | 39 | 41 |
| den | @kc | jax | lar | @sf | @lac | sea | @ari | kc | @car | BYE | lv | @pit | mia | @nyj | @lv | buf | @ne | 39 | 36 |
| lac | ari | lv | @buf | @sea | den | @kc | BYE | @lar | hou | @bal | nyj | ne | @tb | @lv | sf | @mia | kc | 39 | 38 |
| buf | @hou | det | lac | ne | @lar | @lv | BYE | bal | @min | @nyj | mia | kc | @ne | @gb | chi | @den | @mia | 37 | 41 |
| lv | mia | @lac | @no | kc | @ne | buf | lar | @nyj | @sf | sea | @den | @cle | BYE | lac | den | ten | @ari | 37 | 62 |
Take it into your draft
The draft companion applies these same projections live: best available by value over replacement, the chance a player survives to your next pick, and a running roster board.