Week 3 · Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · CBS
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Market line for comparison: KC -11.5 · O/U 45.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Kansas City Chiefs
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 6-11 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1416 | 80% | 1132.7 |
Scoring strength 362–328 points (+34.0 differential) → 55.8% expected win rate | 1541 | 5% | 77.0 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1331 | 15% | 199.6 |
Offense / defense split 21.3 PPG scored, 19.3 allowed → offense 1457, defense 1593 | 1550 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1409.3 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1432.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| KC 2026 starting rating | 1432 | ||
Miami Dolphins
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 7-10 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1451 | 80% | 1160.8 |
Scoring strength 347–424 points (-77.0 differential) → 38.3% expected win rate | 1417 | 5% | 70.9 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1400 | 15% | 210.0 |
Offense / defense split 20.4 PPG scored, 24.9 allowed → offense 1435, defense 1452 | 1387 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1441.7 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1456.3 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| MIA 2026 starting rating | 1456 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(-104.6 / 400))
64.6% KC
Model spread
-104.6 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
KC -4.0
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
59.9%
KC by 3.0
Injury term
−35.0 Elo
−1.4 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
64.6%
KC by 4.0 · moved 4.7 pts of probability
Kansas City Chiefs
−0.3 pts
- Brashard Smith RBOut−0.10
- Josh Simmons OTOut−0.10
- Rashee Rice WRQuestionable−0.03
- Jaylon Moore OTQuestionable−0.03
Miami Dolphins
−0.1 pts
- Reese Taylor CBQuestionable−0.03
- Willie Gay Jr. LBQuestionable−0.03
- Robert Beal Jr. DEQuestionable−0.03
- Jaylen Wright RBQuestionable−0.03
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
59.9% KC
Model value
Model spread
KC -3.0
Elo diff −69.6 · Lean
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1415.8
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +16.2
- 2026 starting rating
- 1432.0
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 9–26 at TEN−47.8
- W 30–17 vs DET+42.5
- W 22–9 at NYG+39.4
- 2025 final rating
- 1451.0
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +5.3
- 2026 starting rating
- 1456.3
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 34–10 at ATL+63.5
- L 21–45 vs CIN−62.0
- W 30–13 vs BUF+57.0
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.2 points of win probability
MIA hosts at Hard Rock Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
2025 head to head
These teams did not meet in 2025. Past meetings carry no weight in the model anyway — they are already baked into each team's rating.
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1500
average opponent rating · 16th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 1-8
- vs below-average teams
- 5-3
1498
average opponent rating · 18th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-6
- vs below-average teams
- 4-4
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.