Week 3 · Mon, 8:15 PM EDT · ESPN/ABC
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Market line for comparison: PHI -3 · O/U 44.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Philadelphia Eagles
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 11-6 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1502 | 80% | 1201.7 |
Scoring strength 379–325 points (+54.0 differential) → 59.0% expected win rate | 1563 | 5% | 78.2 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1473 | 15% | 220.9 |
Offense / defense split 22.3 PPG scored, 19.1 allowed → offense 1482, defense 1597 | 1579 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1500.8 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1500.6 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| PHI 2026 starting rating | 1501 | ||
Chicago Bears
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 11-6 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1523 | 80% | 1218.0 |
Scoring strength 441–415 points (+26.0 differential) → 53.6% expected win rate | 1525 | 5% | 76.3 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1509 | 15% | 226.3 |
Offense / defense split 25.9 PPG scored, 24.4 allowed → offense 1573, defense 1465 | 1538 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1520.6 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1515.5 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| CHI 2026 starting rating | 1515 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(-80.4 / 400))
61.4% PHI
Model spread
-80.4 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
PHI -3.0
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
47.2%
PHI by 1.0
Injury term
−100.0 Elo
−4.0 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
61.4%
PHI by 3.0 · moved 14.2 pts of probability
Philadelphia Eagles
−0.9 pts
- Jakorian Bennett CBOut−0.10
- Cole Payton QBOut−0.10
- Lane Johnson OTOut−0.10
- Dontayvion Wicks WROut−0.10
Chicago Bears
−0.5 pts
- Anthony Johnson Jr. SOut−0.10
- T.J. Edwards LBOut−0.10
- Jack Sanborn LBOut−0.10
- Kyle Monangai RBOut−0.10
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
52.8% CHI
Model value
Model spread
CHI -1.0
Elo diff +19.6 · Coin flip
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1502.2
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −1.5
- 2026 starting rating
- 1500.6
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 17–34 at NYG−52.9
- L 17–24 vs WSH−46.7
- L 15–24 vs CHI−35.6
- 2025 final rating
- 1522.5
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −7.1
- 2026 starting rating
- 1515.5
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 16–30 at BAL−49.8
- L 21–52 at DET−46.5
- W 31–14 vs DAL+44.9
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.4 points of win probability
CHI hosts at Soldier Field. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
2025 head to head
- Week 13: CHI won 24–15 (CHI on the road)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1489
average opponent rating · 28th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-3
- vs below-average teams
- 8-3
1494
average opponent rating · 25th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-3
- vs below-average teams
- 7-3
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.