Week 4 · Mon, 8:15 PM EDT · ESPN
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Market line for comparison: NO -3 · O/U 48.5 (Draft Kings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Atlanta Falcons
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 8-9 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1517 | 80% | 1213.9 |
Scoring strength 353–401 points (-48.0 differential) → 42.5% expected win rate | 1448 | 5% | 72.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1558 | 15% | 233.7 |
Offense / defense split 20.8 PPG scored, 23.6 allowed → offense 1444, defense 1486 | 1429 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1520.0 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1515.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| ATL 2026 starting rating | 1515 | ||
New Orleans Saints
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 6-11 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1512 | 80% | 1209.4 |
Scoring strength 306–383 points (-77.0 differential) → 37.0% expected win rate | 1408 | 5% | 70.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1552 | 15% | 232.8 |
Offense / defense split 18.0 PPG scored, 22.5 allowed → offense 1375, defense 1512 | 1387 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1512.6 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1509.4 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| NO 2026 starting rating | 1509 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(-21.6 / 400))
53.1% ATL
Model spread
-21.6 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
ATL -1.0
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
47.5%
ATL by 0.5
Injury term
−38.8 Elo
−1.6 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
53.1%
ATL by 1.0 · moved 5.6 pts of probability
Atlanta Falcons
−0.7 pts
- Brian Robinson Jr. RBOut−0.10
- Michael Jerrell OTOut−0.10
- Beaux Collins WROut−0.10
- Avieon Terrell CBOut−0.10
New Orleans Saints
−0.2 pts
- Jordyn Tyson WROut−0.10
- Justin Reid SQuestionable−0.03
- CJ Donaldson RBQuestionable−0.03
- Nathan Shepherd DTQuestionable−0.03
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
52.5% NO
Model value
Model spread
NO -0.5
Elo diff +17.2 · Coin flip
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1517.3
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −2.4
- 2026 starting rating
- 1515.0
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 10–34 vs MIA−63.5
- L 0–30 at CAR−55.8
- W 22–6 at MIN+48.1
- 2025 final rating
- 1511.8
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −2.4
- 2026 starting rating
- 1509.4
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 17–7 at CAR+48.3
- L 10–24 vs ATL−45.0
- W 26–14 vs NYG+37.6
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.6 points of win probability
NO hosts at Caesars Superdome. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
Rest
−15.0 pts
worth 2.2 points of win probability
5 Elo points per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
2025 head to head
- Week 12: ATL won 24–10 (NO at home)
- Week 18: ATL won 19–17 (NO on the road)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1497
average opponent rating · 20th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 5-3
- vs below-average teams
- 3-6
1496
average opponent rating · 21st toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 0-8
- vs below-average teams
- 6-3
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.