Week 4 · Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · CBS
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Market line for comparison: CIN -2.5 · O/U 51.5 (Draft Kings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 13-4 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1630 | 80% | 1303.6 |
Scoring strength 474–336 points (+138.0 differential) → 69.3% expected win rate | 1642 | 5% | 82.1 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1702 | 15% | 255.3 |
Offense / defense split 27.9 PPG scored, 19.8 allowed → offense 1622, defense 1581 | 1703 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1641.0 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1605.8 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| JAX 2026 starting rating | 1606 | ||
Cincinnati Bengals
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 6-11 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1494 | 80% | 1195.4 |
Scoring strength 414–492 points (-78.0 differential) → 39.9% expected win rate | 1429 | 5% | 71.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1505 | 15% | 225.7 |
Offense / defense split 24.4 PPG scored, 28.9 allowed → offense 1534, defense 1352 | 1385 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1492.5 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1494.4 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| CIN 2026 starting rating | 1494 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(-69.7 / 400))
59.9% JAX
Model spread
-69.7 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
JAX -3.0
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
57.4%
JAX by 2.0
Injury term
−18.3 Elo
−0.7 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
59.9%
JAX by 3.0 · moved 2.5 pts of probability
Jacksonville Jaguars
−0.2 pts
- Anton Harrison OTOut−0.10
- Ross Matiscik LSQuestionable−0.03
- Antonio Johnson SQuestionable−0.03
- Montaric Brown CBQuestionable−0.03
Cincinnati Bengals
−0.3 pts
- Kyle Dugger SOut−0.10
- Tanner Hudson TEOut−0.10
- Swayze Bozeman LBOut−0.10
- Erick All Jr. TEQuestionable−0.03
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
57.4% JAX
Model value
Model spread
JAX -2.0
Elo diff −51.5 · Lean
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1629.5
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −23.8
- 2026 starting rating
- 1605.8
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 35–6 vs LAC+57.7
- L 7–35 vs LAR−43.8
- W 34–20 at DEN+42.5
- 2025 final rating
- 1494.2
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +0.2
- 2026 starting rating
- 1494.4
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 32–14 at BAL+67.5
- W 45–21 at MIA+62.0
- L 10–48 at MIN−56.5
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.4 points of win probability
CIN hosts at Paycor Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
2025 head to head
- Week 2: CIN won 31–27 (CIN at home)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1490
average opponent rating · 27th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-3
- vs below-average teams
- 9-1
1509
average opponent rating · 8th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-7
- vs below-average teams
- 3-4
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.