Week 5 · Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · Fox
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Market line for comparison: CIN -7 · O/U 42.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Cincinnati Bengals
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 6-11 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1494 | 80% | 1195.4 |
Scoring strength 414–492 points (-78.0 differential) → 39.9% expected win rate | 1429 | 5% | 71.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1505 | 15% | 225.7 |
Offense / defense split 24.4 PPG scored, 28.9 allowed → offense 1534, defense 1352 | 1385 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1492.5 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1494.4 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| CIN 2026 starting rating | 1494 | ||
Miami Dolphins
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 7-10 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1451 | 80% | 1160.8 |
Scoring strength 347–424 points (-77.0 differential) → 38.3% expected win rate | 1417 | 5% | 70.9 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1400 | 15% | 210.0 |
Offense / defense split 20.4 PPG scored, 24.9 allowed → offense 1435, defense 1452 | 1387 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1441.7 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1456.3 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| MIA 2026 starting rating | 1456 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(-103.3 / 400))
64.4% CIN
Model spread
-103.3 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
CIN -4.0
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
62.4%
CIN by 3.5
Injury term
−15.5 Elo
−0.6 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
64.4%
CIN by 4.0 · moved 2.1 pts of probability
Cincinnati Bengals
−0.3 pts
- Tanner Hudson TEOut−0.10
- Swayze Bozeman LBOut−0.10
- Kyle Dugger SOut−0.10
- Erick All Jr. TEQuestionable−0.03
Miami Dolphins
−0.1 pts
- Willie Gay Jr. LBQuestionable−0.03
- Jaylen Wright RBQuestionable−0.03
- Robert Beal Jr. DEQuestionable−0.03
- Reese Taylor CBQuestionable−0.03
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
62.4% CIN
Model value
Model spread
CIN -3.5
Elo diff −87.8 · Lean
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1494.2
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +0.2
- 2026 starting rating
- 1494.4
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 32–14 at BAL+67.5
- W 45–21 at MIA+62.0
- L 10–48 at MIN−56.5
- 2025 final rating
- 1451.0
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +5.3
- 2026 starting rating
- 1456.3
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 34–10 at ATL+63.5
- L 21–45 vs CIN−62.0
- W 30–13 vs BUF+57.0
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.2 points of win probability
MIA hosts at Hard Rock Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
2025 head to head
- Week 16: CIN won 45–21 (MIA at home)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1509
average opponent rating · 8th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-7
- vs below-average teams
- 3-4
1498
average opponent rating · 18th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-6
- vs below-average teams
- 4-4
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.