Week 5 · Sun, 4:05 PM EDT · CBS
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Market line for comparison: DEN -3.5 · O/U 42.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Denver Broncos
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 14-3 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1592 | 80% | 1273.4 |
Scoring strength 401–311 points (+90.0 differential) → 64.6% expected win rate | 1605 | 5% | 80.2 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1633 | 15% | 244.9 |
Offense / defense split 23.6 PPG scored, 18.3 allowed → offense 1514, defense 1618 | 1632 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1598.5 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1573.9 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| DEN 2026 starting rating | 1574 | ||
Los Angeles Chargers
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 11-6 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1511 | 80% | 1208.5 |
Scoring strength 368–340 points (+28.0 differential) → 54.7% expected win rate | 1533 | 5% | 76.6 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1495 | 15% | 224.3 |
Offense / defense split 21.6 PPG scored, 20.0 allowed → offense 1466, defense 1575 | 1541 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1509.4 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1507.1 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| LAC 2026 starting rating | 1507 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(-109.0 / 400))
65.2% DEN
Model spread
-109.0 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
DEN -4.5
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
62.1%
DEN by 3.5
Injury term
−23.0 Elo
−0.9 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
65.2%
DEN by 4.5 · moved 3.1 pts of probability
Denver Broncos
−0.5 pts
- Talanoa Hufanga SOut−0.10
- Pat Surtain II CBOut−0.10
- Jonah Elliss LBOut−0.10
- Tyler Badie RBOut−0.10
Los Angeles Chargers
−0.5 pts
- Alec Ingold FBOut−0.10
- Denzel Perryman LBOut−0.10
- Rodney Shelley CBQuestionable−0.03
- Tre' Harris WRQuestionable−0.03
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
62.1% DEN
Model value
Model spread
DEN -3.5
Elo diff −86.0 · Lean
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1591.7
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −17.8
- 2026 starting rating
- 1573.9
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 20–34 vs JAX−42.5
- W 28–3 vs CIN+38.2
- W 44–24 vs DAL+35.0
- 2025 final rating
- 1510.7
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −3.6
- 2026 starting rating
- 1507.1
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 6–35 at JAX−57.7
- L 10–27 vs WSH−48.4
- W 37–10 vs MIN+45.4
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.2 points of win probability
LAC hosts at SoFi Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
2025 head to head
- Week 3: LAC won 23–20 (LAC at home)
- Week 18: DEN won 19–3 (LAC on the road)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1471
average opponent rating · 32nd toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-2
- vs below-average teams
- 11-1
1488
average opponent rating · 29th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-3
- vs below-average teams
- 7-3
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.