Week 6 · Sun, 9:30 AM EDT · NFL Net
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Neutral site · Wembley Stadium, London
Market line for comparison: JAX -3 · O/U 42.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Houston Texans
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 12-5 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1608 | 80% | 1286.6 |
Scoring strength 404–295 points (+109.0 differential) → 67.8% expected win rate | 1629 | 5% | 81.5 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1661 | 15% | 249.1 |
Offense / defense split 23.8 PPG scored, 17.4 allowed → offense 1519, defense 1642 | 1660 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1617.1 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1587.8 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| HOU 2026 starting rating | 1588 | ||
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 13-4 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1630 | 80% | 1303.6 |
Scoring strength 474–336 points (+138.0 differential) → 69.3% expected win rate | 1642 | 5% | 82.1 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1702 | 15% | 255.3 |
Offense / defense split 27.9 PPG scored, 19.8 allowed → offense 1622, defense 1581 | 1703 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1641.0 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1605.8 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| JAX 2026 starting rating | 1606 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(110.4 / 400))
65.4% JAX
Model spread
110.4 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
JAX -4.5
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
65.1%
JAX by 4.5
Injury term
+1.8 Elo
+0.1 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
65.4%
JAX by 4.5 · moved 0.2 pts of probability
Houston Texans
−0.4 pts
- Reed Blankenship SOut−0.10
- Blake Fisher OTOut−0.10
- Jalen Pitre SOut−0.10
- David Montgomery RBOut−0.10
Jacksonville Jaguars
−0.2 pts
- Anton Harrison OTOut−0.10
- Ross Matiscik LSQuestionable−0.03
- Antonio Johnson SQuestionable−0.03
- Montaric Brown CBQuestionable−0.03
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
Neutral site, so the model applies 0. The tuned value elsewhere is 25.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
65.1% JAX
Model value
Model spread
JAX -4.5
Elo diff +108.7 · Confident
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1608.2
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −20.4
- 2026 starting rating
- 1587.8
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 44–10 at BAL+49.0
- W 26–0 vs TEN+37.4
- W 26–15 vs SF+34.7
- 2025 final rating
- 1629.5
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −23.8
- 2026 starting rating
- 1605.8
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 35–6 vs LAC+57.7
- L 7–35 vs LAR−43.8
- W 34–20 at DEN+42.5
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
Neutral
Played at Wembley Stadium, London. Neither side gets the 25-point host bonus.
2025 head to head
- Week 3: JAX won 17–10 (JAX at home)
- Week 10: HOU won 36–29 (JAX on the road)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1503
average opponent rating · 14th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 5-4
- vs below-average teams
- 7-1
1490
average opponent rating · 27th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-3
- vs below-average teams
- 9-1
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.