Week 7 · Mon, 8:15 PM EDT · ESPN/ABC/Disney+
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Market line for comparison: DAL -4.5 · O/U 44.5 (Draft Kings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Dallas Cowboys
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 7-9-1 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1437 | 80% | 1149.9 |
Scoring strength 471–511 points (-40.0 differential) → 45.2% expected win rate | 1466 | 5% | 73.3 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1386 | 15% | 207.9 |
Offense / defense split 27.7 PPG scored, 30.1 allowed → offense 1617, defense 1324 | 1441 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1431.1 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1448.3 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| DAL 2026 starting rating | 1448 | ||
Philadelphia Eagles
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 11-6 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1502 | 80% | 1201.7 |
Scoring strength 379–325 points (+54.0 differential) → 59.0% expected win rate | 1563 | 5% | 78.2 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1473 | 15% | 220.9 |
Offense / defense split 22.3 PPG scored, 19.1 allowed → offense 1482, defense 1597 | 1579 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1500.8 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1500.6 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| PHI 2026 starting rating | 1501 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(22.5 / 400))
53.2% PHI
Model spread
22.5 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
PHI -1.0
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
53.9%
PHI by 1.0
Injury term
−5.0 Elo
−0.2 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
53.2%
PHI by 1.0 · moved 0.7 pts of probability
Dallas Cowboys
−0.3 pts
- P.J. Locke SOut−0.10
- Marist Liufau LBOut−0.10
- Dee Winters LBQuestionable−0.03
- Drew Shelton OTQuestionable−0.03
Philadelphia Eagles
−0.9 pts
- Dontayvion Wicks WROut−0.10
- Jakorian Bennett CBOut−0.10
- DeVonta Smith WROut−0.10
- Nolan Smith Jr. LBOut−0.10
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
53.9% PHI
Model value
Model spread
PHI -1.0
Elo diff +27.5 · Coin flip
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1437.3
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +11.0
- 2026 starting rating
- 1448.3
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 44–22 vs WSH+46.9
- L 14–31 at CHI−44.9
- L 17–34 at NYG−41.6
- 2025 final rating
- 1502.2
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −1.5
- 2026 starting rating
- 1500.6
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 17–34 at NYG−52.9
- L 17–24 vs WSH−46.7
- L 15–24 vs CHI−35.6
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.6 points of win probability
PHI hosts at Lincoln Financial Field. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
2025 head to head
- Week 1: PHI won 24–20 (PHI at home)
- Week 12: DAL won 24–21 (PHI on the road)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1476
average opponent rating · 31st toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 1-5
- vs below-average teams
- 6-4-1
1489
average opponent rating · 28th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-3
- vs below-average teams
- 8-3
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.