Week 8 · Sun, 1:00 PM EST · Fox
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Market line for comparison: TB -2.5 · O/U 46.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Atlanta Falcons
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 8-9 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1517 | 80% | 1213.9 |
Scoring strength 353–401 points (-48.0 differential) → 42.5% expected win rate | 1448 | 5% | 72.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1558 | 15% | 233.7 |
Offense / defense split 20.8 PPG scored, 23.6 allowed → offense 1444, defense 1486 | 1429 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1520.0 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1515.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| ATL 2026 starting rating | 1515 | ||
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 8-9 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1452 | 80% | 1161.3 |
Scoring strength 380–411 points (-31.0 differential) → 45.4% expected win rate | 1468 | 5% | 73.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1424 | 15% | 213.5 |
Offense / defense split 22.4 PPG scored, 24.2 allowed → offense 1484, defense 1471 | 1454 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1448.3 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1461.2 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| TB 2026 starting rating | 1461 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(28.7 / 400))
54.1% TB
Model spread
28.7 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
TB -1.0
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
52.3%
TB by 0.5
Injury term
+12.8 Elo
+0.5 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
54.1%
TB by 1.0 · moved 1.8 pts of probability
Atlanta Falcons
−0.7 pts
- Billy Bowman Jr. CBOut−0.10
- Olamide Zaccheaus WROut−0.10
- Brian Robinson Jr. RBOut−0.10
- Michael Jerrell OTOut−0.10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
−0.2 pts
- Christian Rozeboom LBOut−0.10
- Luke Goedeke OTQuestionable−0.03
- Emeka Egbuka WRQuestionable−0.03
- Antoine Winfield Jr. SQuestionable−0.03
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
52.3% TB
Model value
Model spread
TB -0.5
Elo diff +15.9 · Coin flip
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1517.3
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −2.4
- 2026 starting rating
- 1515.0
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 10–34 vs MIA−63.5
- L 0–30 at CAR−55.8
- W 22–6 at MIN+48.1
- 2025 final rating
- 1451.7
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +9.5
- 2026 starting rating
- 1461.2
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 9–24 at DET−37.6
- W 23–3 at NO+34.0
- W 30–19 vs SF+32.8
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.6 points of win probability
TB hosts at Raymond James Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
2025 head to head
- Week 1: TB won 23–20 (TB on the road)
- Week 15: ATL won 29–28 (TB at home)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1497
average opponent rating · 20th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 5-3
- vs below-average teams
- 3-6
1511
average opponent rating · 5th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 5-6
- vs below-average teams
- 3-3
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.