Week 2 · Sun, 4:05 PM EDT · CBS
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Market line for comparison: DEN -3 · O/U 45.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 13-4 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1630 | 80% | 1303.6 |
Scoring strength 474–336 points (+138.0 differential) → 69.3% expected win rate | 1642 | 5% | 82.1 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1702 | 15% | 255.3 |
Offense / defense split 27.9 PPG scored, 19.8 allowed → offense 1622, defense 1581 | 1703 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1641.0 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1605.8 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| JAX 2026 starting rating | 1606 | ||
Denver Broncos
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 14-3 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1592 | 80% | 1273.4 |
Scoring strength 401–311 points (+90.0 differential) → 64.6% expected win rate | 1605 | 5% | 80.2 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1633 | 15% | 244.9 |
Offense / defense split 23.6 PPG scored, 18.3 allowed → offense 1514, defense 1618 | 1632 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1598.5 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1573.9 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| DEN 2026 starting rating | 1574 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(-80.8 / 400))
61.4% JAX
Model spread
-80.8 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
JAX -3.0
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
62.1%
JAX by 3.5
Injury term
+5.0 Elo
+0.2 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
61.4%
JAX by 3.0 · moved 0.7 pts of probability
Jacksonville Jaguars
−0.2 pts
- Anton Harrison OTOut−0.10
- Ross Matiscik LSQuestionable−0.03
- Montaric Brown CBQuestionable−0.03
- Antonio Johnson SQuestionable−0.03
Denver Broncos
−0.5 pts
- Talanoa Hufanga SOut−0.10
- Pat Surtain II CBOut−0.10
- Tyler Badie RBOut−0.10
- Jonah Elliss LBOut−0.10
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
62.1% JAX
Model value
Model spread
JAX -3.5
Elo diff −85.8 · Lean
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1629.5
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −23.8
- 2026 starting rating
- 1605.8
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 35–6 vs LAC+57.7
- L 7–35 vs LAR−43.8
- W 34–20 at DEN+42.5
- 2025 final rating
- 1591.7
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −17.8
- 2026 starting rating
- 1573.9
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 20–34 vs JAX−42.5
- W 28–3 vs CIN+38.2
- W 44–24 vs DAL+35.0
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.3 points of win probability
DEN hosts at Empower Field at Mile High. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
Rest
−5.0 pts
worth 0.7 points of win probability
5 Elo points per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
2025 head to head
- Week 16: JAX won 34–20 (DEN at home)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1490
average opponent rating · 27th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-3
- vs below-average teams
- 9-1
1471
average opponent rating · 32nd toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-2
- vs below-average teams
- 11-1
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.