Week 2 · Sun, 4:25 PM EDT · FOX
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Market line for comparison: SEA -3.5 · O/U 40.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Seattle Seahawks
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 14-3 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1643 | 80% | 1314.2 |
Scoring strength 483–292 points (+191.0 differential) → 76.7% expected win rate | 1707 | 5% | 85.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1724 | 15% | 258.6 |
Offense / defense split 28.4 PPG scored, 17.2 allowed → offense 1635, defense 1646 | 1781 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1658.2 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1618.6 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| SEA 2026 starting rating | 1619 | ||
Arizona Cardinals
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 3-14 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1371 | 80% | 1096.8 |
Scoring strength 355–488 points (-133.0 differential) → 32.0% expected win rate | 1369 | 5% | 68.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1308 | 15% | 196.1 |
Offense / defense split 20.9 PPG scored, 28.7 allowed → offense 1447, defense 1358 | 1304 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1361.4 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1396.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| ARI 2026 starting rating | 1396 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(-33.6 / 400))
54.8% SEA
Model spread
-33.6 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
SEA -1.5
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
71.8%
SEA by 6.5
Injury term
+128.8 Elo
+5.2 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
54.8%
SEA by 1.5 · moved 17.0 pts of probability
Seattle Seahawks
−0.4 pts
- Jadarian Price RBOut−0.10
- Charles Cross OTDoubtful−0.08
- Zach Charbonnet RBQuestionable−0.03
- Chazz Surratt LBQuestionable−0.03
Arizona Cardinals
−0.9 pts
- Tip Reiman TEOut−0.10
- Jeremiyah Love RBOut−0.10
- Jalen Brooks WROut−0.10
- Andrew Wingard SOut−0.10
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
71.8% SEA
Model value
Model spread
SEA -6.5
Elo diff −162.3 · Confident
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1642.8
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −24.1
- 2026 starting rating
- 1618.6
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 31–17 at PIT+45.9
- W 20–12 at JAX+36.3
- W 44–13 vs NO+34.4
- 2025 final rating
- 1371.0
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +25.0
- 2026 starting rating
- 1396.0
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 22–41 vs SF−43.9
- W 27–17 at DAL+39.3
- W 20–13 at NO+31.6
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.5 points of win probability
ARI hosts at State Farm Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
Rest
−20.0 pts
worth 2.9 points of win probability
5 Elo points per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
2025 head to head
- Week 4: SEA won 23–20 (ARI at home)
- Week 10: SEA won 44–22 (ARI on the road)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1503
average opponent rating · 13th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 8-2
- vs below-average teams
- 6-1
1523
average opponent rating · 2nd toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 1-9
- vs below-average teams
- 2-5
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.