2026 Season · Week 4 · Oct 1 – Oct 5
The NFL schedule, with the math in the open.
Week 4 predictions up top, then every game on the calendar with kickoff times, live scores and a matchup chart. Tap any matchup to see exactly how the number was reached.
Strongest call on the board
at
81%
Seattle Seahawks to win · sea -10.5
Final
lac 23 · sea 30
Call hit — Seattle Seahawks won
Thursday Night
1 game
Sunday Early Window
9 games
Indianapolis
Colts
30
Final
30–13
Model called ithad IND 69%
Washington
Commanders
13
Final · spread off by 11.5NFL NetTottenham Hotspur Stadium · LondonNeutral site
Green Bay
Packers
17
Final
17–14
Model called ithad GB 64%
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
14
Final · spread off by 1.0FOXRaymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
Dallas
Cowboys
34
Final
34–30
Model missedhad HOU 58%
Houston
Texans
30
Final · spread off by 6.5FOXReliant Stadium · Houston, TX
New England
Patriots
29
Final
29–26
Model missedhad BUF 58%
Buffalo
Bills
26
Final · spread off by 5.0CBSHighmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
Tennessee
Titans
18
Final
18–24
Model called ithad BAL 64%
Baltimore
Ravens
24
Final · spread off by 2.0CBSM&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
Los Angeles
Rams
24
Final
24–20
Model called ithad LAR 57%
Philadelphia
Eagles
20
Final · spread off by 2.0FOXLincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
New York
Jets
12
Final
12–23
Model called ithad CHI 57%
Chicago
Bears
23
Final · spread off by 9.0FOXSoldier Field · Chicago, IL
Jacksonville
Jaguars
22
Final
22–17
Model called ithad JAX 60%
Cincinnati
Bengals
17
Final · spread off by 2.0CBSPaycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
Arizona
Cardinals
24
Final
24–36
Model called ithad NYG 61%
New York
Giants
36
Final · spread off by 8.5CBSMetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
Sunday Late Window
4 games
Miami
Dolphins
10
Final
10–15
Model called ithad MIN 75%
Minnesota
Vikings
15
Final · spread off by 2.5FOXU.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
Denver
Broncos
14
Final
14–24
Model called ithad SF 60%
San Francisco
49ers
24
Final · spread off by 7.0CBSLevi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
Kansas City
Chiefs
30
Final
30–27
Model missedhad LV 53%
Las Vegas
Raiders
27
Final · spread off by 3.5CBSAllegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
Los Angeles
Chargers
23
Final
23–30
Model called ithad SEA 81%
Seattle
Seahawks
30
Final · spread off by 3.5CBSLumen Field · Seattle, WA
Sunday Night
1 game
2026 full schedule
Live from the league feedEvery game on the calendar with kickoff time and live score. The bar under each matchup is the model's price: Elo plus 25 points of home field, converted to a win probability and a spread.
Thu
1 game- FinalPrime Video · Soldier FieldSee the full calculation →NE24CHIhome30
Sun
12 games- FinalNFL Net · Stade de FranceSee the full calculation →PIT16NOhome10
- FinalFox · Mercedes-Benz StadiumSee the full calculation →SF20ATLhome29
- FinalCBS · Nissan StadiumSee the full calculation →CLE27TENhome24
- FinalCBS · U.S. Bank StadiumSee the full calculation →IND10MINhome16
- FinalCBS · MetLife StadiumSee the full calculation →MIA28NYJhome25
- FinalFox · Bank of America StadiumSee the full calculation →TB43CARhome13
- FinalCBS · M&T Bank StadiumSee the full calculation →CIN35BALhome13
- FinalFox · Reliant StadiumSee the full calculation →NYG27HOUhome21
- FinalCBS · State Farm StadiumSee the full calculation →DEN30ARIhome16
- FinalFox · Ford FieldSee the full calculation →GB17DEThome20
- FinalFox · Allegiant StadiumSee the full calculation →LAR35LVhome21
- FinalNBC · Lumen FieldSee the full calculation →KC3SEAhome20
Mon
1 game- FinalESPN · Lincoln Financial FieldSee the full calculation →DAL38PHIhome21