2026 season
Season tracker
Every week's slate, the pick the model held before kickoff, and how that call held up. Ratings are replayed forward from each team's starting rating, so the record below is exactly what the model would have posted in real time.
Straight-up record
66-40
62.3% on 106 graded games
Brier score
0.235
2025 backtest: 0.222 · lower is better
Avg spread error
9.5 pts
Model line vs the actual margin
Season progress
107/272
165 games still to play
Accuracy through the season
Solid line: season-to-date accuracy. Dashed orange: the 2025 backtest baseline (64.0%). Dashed grey: a coin flip.
Week by week
Baseline: 64.0% across 272 backtested 2025 games
| Week | Status | Record | Accuracy | Brier | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | Final | 11-5 | 69% | 0.239 | 11-5 · 69% |
| Week 2 | Final | 9-7 | 56% | 0.225 | 20-12 · 63% |
| Week 3 | Final | 10-6 | 63% | 0.239 | 30-18 · 63% |
| Week 4 | Final | 12-4 | 75% | 0.185 | 42-22 · 66% |
| Week 5 | Final | 9-5 | 64% | 0.258 | 51-27 · 65% |
| Week 6 | Final | 8-6 | 57% | 0.254 | 59-33 · 64% |
| Week 7 | Final | 7-7 | 50% | 0.254 | 66-40 · 62% |
| Week 8 | Upcoming | — | — | — | 66-40 · 62% |
| Week 9 | Upcoming | — | — | — | 66-40 · 62% |
| Week 10 | Upcoming | — | — | — | 66-40 · 62% |
| Week 11 | Upcoming | — | — | — | 66-40 · 62% |
| Week 12 | Upcoming | — | — | — | 66-40 · 62% |
| Week 13 | Upcoming | — | — | — | 66-40 · 62% |
| Week 14 | Upcoming | — | — | — | 66-40 · 62% |
| Week 15 | Upcoming | — | — | — | 66-40 · 62% |
| Week 16 | Upcoming | — | — | — | 66-40 · 62% |
| Week 17 | Upcoming | — | — | — | 66-40 · 62% |
| Week 18 | Upcoming | — | — | — | 66-40 · 62% |
Week 17 slatenot yet graded
League standings
Real division records built from the same finals the tracker grades, with the model's hit rate on every team's games sitting right next to them.
AFC
| AFC East | W-L | Div | Conf | PF–PA | Diff | Strk | Model | Picked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | 0-1 | 3-1 | 197–171 | +26 | W2 | 50% (3/6) | 3/4 | |
| 4-3 | 2-0 | 4-1 | 160–143 | +17 | L1 | 71% (5/7) | 3/4 | |
| 2-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 137–150 | -13 | L2 | 43% (3/7) | 0/2 | |
| 1-5 | 1-0 | 1-3 | 98–157 | -59 | W1 | 67% (4/6) | 0/1 |
| AFC North | W-L | Div | Conf | PF–PA | Diff | Strk | Model | Picked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | 2-0 | 3-2 | 133–146 | -13 | W2 | 57% (4/7) | 3/4 | |
| 5-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 153–138 | +15 | W3 | 86% (6/7) | 4/4 | |
| 4-2 | 1-1 | 3-2 | 163–122 | +41 | W2 | 50% (3/6) | 2/3 | |
| 4-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 169–167 | +2 | L2 | 43% (3/7) | 3/6 |
| AFC South | W-L | Div | Conf | PF–PA | Diff | Strk | Model | Picked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | 0-1 | 3-2 | 154–104 | +50 | L1 | 67% (4/6) | 4/6 | |
| 2-5 | 2-1 | 2-3 | 165–170 | -5 | L1 | 14% (1/7) | 1/6 | |
| 2-5 | 1-1 | 1-4 | 154–180 | -26 | L3 | 71% (5/7) | 1/2 | |
| 1-6 | 1-1 | 1-4 | 108–156 | -48 | L1 | 71% (5/7) | 0/1 |
| AFC West | W-L | Div | Conf | PF–PA | Diff | Strk | Model | Picked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | 3-0 | 5-0 | 143–103 | +40 | L1 | 67% (4/6) | 3/3 | |
| 5-2 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 144–141 | +3 | W3 | 71% (5/7) | 4/5 | |
| 3-4 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 183–197 | -14 | L4 | 43% (3/7) | 0/1 | |
| 0-6 | 0-3 | 0-4 | 90–151 | -61 | L6 | 67% (4/6) | 0/2 |
NFC
| NFC East | W-L | Div | Conf | PF–PA | Diff | Strk | Model | Picked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | 1-0-1 | 2-2-1 | 163–161 | +2 | W1 | 67% (4/6) | 3/4 | |
| 3-4 | 2-1 | 2-3 | 189–180 | +9 | W1 | 57% (4/7) | 1/2 | |
| 2-5 | 1-1 | 1-4 | 127–175 | -48 | L5 | 71% (5/7) | 2/4 | |
| 1-4-1 | 0-2-1 | 1-3-1 | 132–172 | -40 | L1 | 80% (4/5) | — |
| NFC North | W-L | Div | Conf | PF–PA | Diff | Strk | Model | Picked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 125–74 | +51 | W6 | 83% (5/6) | 5/5 | |
| 5-2 | 0-2 | 3-2 | 180–143 | +37 | W2 | 43% (3/7) | 2/3 | |
| 4-2 | 1-0 | 3-1 | 184–165 | +19 | W2 | 83% (5/6) | 4/5 | |
| 4-3 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 144–145 | -1 | L1 | 71% (5/7) | 3/4 |
| NFC South | W-L | Div | Conf | PF–PA | Diff | Strk | Model | Picked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | 1-1 | 3-2 | 159–166 | -7 | L1 | 67% (4/6) | 2/3 | |
| 3-4 | 1-1 | 3-2 | 171–173 | -2 | W1 | 43% (3/7) | 1/3 | |
| 2-5 | 1-0 | 2-2 | 162–151 | +11 | W1 | 57% (4/7) | 0/1 | |
| 2-5 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 162–194 | -32 | L1 | 57% (4/7) | 0/1 |
| NFC West | W-L | Div | Conf | PF–PA | Diff | Strk | Model | Picked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | 3-0 | 4-1 | 197–139 | +58 | L1 | 71% (5/7) | 5/6 | |
| 4-3 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 168–125 | +43 | W1 | 71% (5/7) | 4/6 | |
| 3-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 170–159 | +11 | W1 | 71% (5/7) | 3/5 | |
| 2-5 | 1-2 | 1-4 | 142–208 | -66 | L1 | 71% (5/7) | — |
Model is how often the model called that team's games correctly. Picked counts games where the model picked that team to win, and how many of those it got right.
Coin flip
57%
17-13 · said 53%
Lean
68%
32-15 · said 60%
Confident
52%
11-10 · said 68%
Strong
75%
6-2 · said 78%
Graded on straight-up winners; ties are excluded. Brier score and Elo rating are explained in the glossary, and the full method lives on the methodology page.