2026 Season · Against the spread

Straight Cash, Homey

The model's own spread vs the sportsbook line for every game. Whichever side the model thinks the book has mispriced is its pick — graded automatically as games go final.

Week 8

0-0 ATS · —

Matchup	Book line	Model line	ATS pick	Edge	Score	Result
PanthersatPackers	GB -3.5	GB -2.5	CAR +3.5	1 pts	—	Pending
RavensatBills	BUF -3.5	BUF -6	BUF -3.5	2.5 pts	—	Pending
TitansatBengals	CIN -10	CIN -7.5	TEN +10	2.5 pts	—	Pending
VikingsatLions	DET -3	MIN -2	MIN +3	5 pts	—	Pending
RaidersatJets	NYJ -1.5	NYJ -1	LV +1.5	0.5 pts	—	Pending
BrownsatSteelers	PIT -3.5	PIT -2.5	CLE +3.5	1 pts	—	Pending
FalconsatBuccaneers	TB -2.5	TB -1	ATL +2.5	1.5 pts	—	Pending
ColtsatJaguars	JAX -7.5	JAX -8	JAX -7.5	0.5 pts	—	Pending
ChargersatRams	LAR -6.5	LAR -5	LAC +6.5	1.5 pts	—	Pending
ChiefsatBroncos	KC -1.5	DEN -3	DEN +1.5	4.5 pts	—	Pending
PatriotsatDolphins	NE -7.5	NE -4	MIA +7.5	3.5 pts	—	Pending
BearsatSeahawks	SEA -3	SEA -1.5	CHI +3	1.5 pts	—	Pending

Week 7

5-7-1 ATS · 41.7%

Matchup	Book line	Model line	ATS pick	Edge	Score	Result
PatriotsatBears	CHI -3	NE -1	NE +3	4 pts	NE 24 – 30 CHI	Missed
SteelersatSaints	PIT -3.5	PIT -3	NO +3.5	0.5 pts	PIT 16 – 10 NO	Missed
DolphinsatJets	NYJ -4.5	NYJ -1.5	MIA +4.5	3 pts	MIA 28 – 25 NYJ	Covered
BuccaneersatPanthers	CAR -3.5	CAR -4.5	CAR -3.5	1 pts	TB 43 – 13 CAR	Missed
BrownsatTitans	CLE -1.5	CLE -2.5	CLE -1.5	1 pts	CLE 27 – 24 TEN	Covered
ColtsatVikings	MIN -6.5	MIN -8.5	MIN -6.5	2 pts	IND 10 – 16 MIN	Missed
BengalsatRavens	BAL -2.5	BAL -0.5	CIN +2.5	2 pts	CIN 35 – 13 BAL	Covered
GiantsatTexans	HOU -9.5	HOU -3	NYG +9.5	6.5 pts	NYG 27 – 21 HOU	Covered
BroncosatCardinals	DEN -4.5	DEN -5	DEN -4.5	0.5 pts	DEN 30 – 16 ARI	Covered
PackersatLions	DET -3	DET -1.5	GB +3	1.5 pts	GB 17 – 20 DET	Push
RamsatRaiders	LAR -4.5	PK	LV +4.5	4.5 pts	LAR 35 – 21 LV	Missed
ChiefsatSeahawks	SEA -2.5	SEA -1	KC +2.5	1.5 pts	KC 3 – 20 SEA	Missed
CowboysatEagles	DAL -4.5	PHI -1	PHI +4.5	5.5 pts	DAL 38 – 21 PHI	Missed

Week 6

6-6 ATS · 50.0%

Matchup	Book line	Model line	ATS pick	Edge	Score	Result
SeahawksatBroncos	SEA -3	PK	DEN +3	3 pts	SEA 14 – 17 DEN	Covered
TexansatJaguars	JAX -3	JAX -4.5	JAX -3	1.5 pts	HOU 34 – 31 JAX	Missed
TitansatColts	IND -7	IND -4.5	TEN +7	2.5 pts	TEN 26 – 20 IND	Covered
JetsatPatriots	NE -7.5	NE -6	NYJ +7.5	1.5 pts	NYJ 19 – 26 NE	Covered
BearsatFalcons	CHI -3	ATL -1	ATL +3	4 pts	CHI 31 – 23 ATL	Missed
SaintsatGiants	NYG -1.5	NYG -4	NYG -1.5	2.5 pts	NO 34 – 27 NYG	Missed
PanthersatEagles	PHI -1.5	CAR -2	CAR +1.5	3.5 pts	CAR 25 – 14 PHI	Covered
SteelersatBuccaneers	PIT -3	PIT -1	TB +3	2 pts	PIT 26 – 19 TB	Missed
RavensatBrowns	BAL -4.5	BAL -2	CLE +4.5	2.5 pts	BAL 10 – 13 CLE	Covered
ChargersatChiefs	KC -8.5	KC -7.5	LAC +8.5	1 pts	LAC 6 – 22 KC	Missed
CowboysatPackers	GB -1.5	GB -2.5	GB -1.5	1 pts	DAL 13 – 23 GB	Covered
Commandersat49ers	SF -7.5	SF -8	SF -7.5	0.5 pts	WSH 17 – 23 SF	Missed

Week 5

6-8-1 ATS · 42.9%

Matchup	Book line	Model line	ATS pick	Edge	Score	Result
BuccaneersatCowboys	DAL -9.5	DAL -8.5	TB +9.5	1 pts	TB 24 – 16 DAL	Covered
EaglesatJaguars	JAX -7	JAX -7.5	JAX -7	0.5 pts	PHI 17 – 19 JAX	Missed
GiantsatCommanders	WSH -3	NYG -3	NYG +3	6 pts	NYG 27 – 27 WSH	Covered
RaidersatPatriots	NE -3.5	NE -1	LV +3.5	2.5 pts	LV 17 – 45 NE	Missed
BearsatPackers	CHI -3	GB -1.5	GB +3	4.5 pts	CHI 7 – 31 GB	Covered
BengalsatDolphins	CIN -7	CIN -4	MIA +7	3 pts	CIN 31 – 24 MIA	Push
ColtsatSteelers	PIT -2.5	PIT -1.5	IND +2.5	1 pts	IND 22 – 34 PIT	Missed
TexansatTitans	HOU -7	HOU -1	TEN +7	6 pts	HOU 26 – 3 TEN	Missed
VikingsatSaints	MIN -1.5	MIN -5	MIN -1.5	3.5 pts	MIN 23 – 13 NO	Covered
BrownsatJets	NYJ -2.5	CLE -4.5	CLE +2.5	7 pts	CLE 12 – 17 NYJ	Missed
BroncosatChargers	DEN -3.5	DEN -4.5	DEN -3.5	1 pts	DEN 23 – 17 LAC	Covered
LionsatCardinals	DET -4.5	DET -1.5	ARI +4.5	3 pts	DET 45 – 21 ARI	Missed
49ersatSeahawks	SEA -2.5	SEA -2	SF +2.5	0.5 pts	SF 32 – 29 SEA	Covered
RavensatFalcons	BAL -2.5	ATL -5.5	ATL +2.5	8 pts	BAL 30 – 23 ATL	Missed
BillsatRams	LAR -2.5	LAR -3	LAR -2.5	0.5 pts	BUF 37 – 34 LAR	Missed

Week 4

10-3-1 ATS · 76.9%

Matchup	Book line	Model line	ATS pick	Edge	Score	Result
SteelersatBrowns	PIT -2.5	CLE -0.5	CLE +2.5	3 pts	PIT 24 – 27 CLE	Covered
ColtsatCommanders	IND -3.5	IND -5.5	IND -3.5	2 pts	IND 30 – 13 WSH	Covered
PackersatBuccaneers	GB -3.5	GB -4	GB -3.5	0.5 pts	GB 17 – 14 TB	Missed
CardinalsatGiants	ARI -1.5	NYG -3.5	NYG +1.5	5 pts	ARI 24 – 36 NYG	Covered
JetsatBears	CHI -3	CHI -2	NYJ +3	1 pts	NYJ 12 – 23 CHI	Missed
CowboysatTexans	HOU -2.5	HOU -2.5	No edge	—	DAL 34 – 30 HOU	No play
PatriotsatBills	BUF -7	BUF -2	NE +7	5 pts	NE 29 – 26 BUF	Covered
TitansatRavens	BAL -11.5	BAL -4	TEN +11.5	7.5 pts	TEN 18 – 24 BAL	Covered
RamsatEagles	LAR -2.5	LAR -2	PHI +2.5	0.5 pts	LAR 24 – 20 PHI	Missed
JaguarsatBengals	CIN -2.5	JAX -3	JAX +2.5	5.5 pts	JAX 22 – 17 CIN	Covered
DolphinsatVikings	MIN -10.5	MIN -7.5	MIA +10.5	3 pts	MIA 10 – 15 MIN	Covered
Broncosat49ers	SF -3	SF -3	No edge	—	DEN 14 – 24 SF	No play
ChargersatSeahawks	SEA -7	SEA -10.5	SEA -7	3.5 pts	LAC 23 – 30 SEA	Push
ChiefsatRaiders	KC -4.5	LV -0.5	LV +4.5	5 pts	KC 30 – 27 LV	Covered
LionsatPanthers	DET -3.5	DET -0.5	CAR +3.5	3 pts	DET 26 – 32 CAR	Covered
FalconsatSaints	NO -3	ATL -1	ATL +3	4 pts	ATL 45 – 24 NO	Covered

Week 3

10-4-1 ATS · 71.4%

Matchup	Book line	Model line	ATS pick	Edge	Score	Result
FalconsatPackers	GB -6.5	GB -3.5	ATL +6.5	3 pts	ATL 35 – 14 GB	Covered
ChargersatBills	BUF -7	BUF -9	BUF -7	2 pts	LAC 16 – 24 BUF	Covered
BengalsatSteelers	CIN -3.5	CIN -1.5	PIT +3.5	2 pts	CIN 27 – 30 PIT	Covered
TexansatColts	HOU -2.5	HOU -1.5	IND +2.5	1 pts	HOU 17 – 19 IND	Covered
JetsatLions	DET -6.5	DET -4	NYJ +6.5	2.5 pts	NYJ 24 – 31 DET	Missed
ChiefsatDolphins	KC -11.5	KC -4	MIA +11.5	7.5 pts	KC 24 – 10 MIA	Missed
TitansatGiants	NYG -6	NYG -3	TEN +6	3 pts	TEN 7 – 12 NYG	Covered
PatriotsatJaguars	JAX -3	JAX -2	NE +3	1 pts	NE 6 – 35 JAX	Missed
SeahawksatCommanders	SEA -7	SEA -12	SEA -7	5 pts	SEA 31 – 33 WSH	Missed
PanthersatBrowns	CAR -2.5	CLE -1	CLE +2.5	3.5 pts	CAR 18 – 21 CLE	Covered
Cardinalsat49ers	SF -8.5	SF -4.5	ARI +8.5	4 pts	ARI 30 – 36 SF	Covered
VikingsatBuccaneers	MIN -1.5	MIN -4.5	MIN -1.5	3 pts	MIN 23 – 16 TB	Covered
RaidersatSaints	NO -3	NO -2.5	LV +3	0.5 pts	LV 35 – 27 NO	Covered
RavensatCowboys	BAL -3	BAL -2.5	DAL +3	0.5 pts	BAL 34 – 31 DAL	Push
RamsatBroncos	LAR -2.5	DEN -3.5	DEN +2.5	6 pts	LAR 26 – 30 DEN	Covered
EaglesatBears	PHI -3	PHI -3	No edge	—	PHI 7 – 27 CHI	No play

Week 2

8-6 ATS · 57.1%

Matchup	Book line	Model line	ATS pick	Edge	Score	Result
LionsatBills	BUF -4.5	BUF -4.5	No edge	—	DET 31 – 41 BUF	No play
SaintsatRavens	BAL -7.5	BAL -1	NO +7.5	6.5 pts	NO 24 – 17 BAL	Covered
BengalsatTexans	HOU -2.5	HOU -0.5	CIN +2.5	2 pts	CIN 20 – 6 HOU	Covered
BrownsatBuccaneers	TB -8.5	TB -0.5	CLE +8.5	8 pts	CLE 23 – 19 TB	Covered
SteelersatPatriots	NE -4.5	NE -2	PIT +4.5	2.5 pts	PIT 3 – 20 NE	Missed
PackersatJets	GB -4.5	NYJ -1.5	NYJ +4.5	6 pts	GB 20 – 17 NYJ	Covered
VikingsatBears	CHI -5.5	CHI -5	MIN +5.5	0.5 pts	MIN 9 – 3 CHI	Covered
EaglesatTitans	PHI -7	PHI -4	TEN +7	3 pts	PHI 24 – 20 TEN	Covered
PanthersatFalcons	CAR -2.5	CAR -1.5	ATL +2.5	1 pts	CAR 34 – 3 ATL	Missed
RaidersatChargers	LAC -6.5	LAC -1.5	LV +6.5	5 pts	LV 26 – 14 LAC	Covered
JaguarsatBroncos	DEN -3	JAX -3	JAX +3	6 pts	JAX 13 – 20 DEN	Missed
Dolphinsat49ers	SF -13.5	SF -8	MIA +13.5	5.5 pts	MIA 13 – 35 SF	Missed
SeahawksatCardinals	SEA -3.5	SEA -1.5	ARI +3.5	2 pts	SEA 31 – 7 ARI	Missed
CommandersatCowboys	DAL -4.5	DAL -4.5	No edge	—	WSH 20 – 37 DAL	No play
ColtsatChiefs	KC -6.5	KC -5.5	IND +6.5	1 pts	IND 30 – 33 KC	Covered
GiantsatRams	LAR -7	PK	NYG +7	7 pts	NYG 6 – 28 LAR	Missed

Week 1

7-9 ATS · 43.8%

Matchup	Book line	Model line	ATS pick	Edge	Score	Result
PatriotsatSeahawks	SEA -3.5	SEA -2.5	NE +3.5	1 pts	NE 10 – 13 SEA	Covered
49ersatRams	LAR -3.5	PK	SF +3.5	3.5 pts	SF 27 – 7 LAR	Covered
RavensatColts	BAL -3.5	BAL -1.5	IND +3.5	2 pts	BAL 41 – 23 IND	Missed
BuccaneersatBengals	CIN -3.5	CIN -2.5	TB +3.5	1 pts	TB 27 – 33 CIN	Missed
FalconsatSteelers	PIT -3	PIT -1	ATL +3	2 pts	ATL 13 – 20 PIT	Missed
JetsatTitans	TEN -1.5	TEN -2.5	TEN -1.5	1 pts	NYJ 23 – 10 TEN	Missed
BearsatPanthers	CHI -2.5	CHI -1	CAR +2.5	1.5 pts	CHI 59 – 37 CAR	Missed
BrownsatJaguars	JAX -7.5	JAX -6.5	CLE +7.5	1 pts	CLE 10 – 34 JAX	Missed
BillsatTexans	BUF -1.5	HOU -2	HOU +1.5	3.5 pts	BUF 36 – 31 HOU	Missed
SaintsatLions	DET -7	DET -1	NO +7	6 pts	NO 30 – 31 DET	Covered
PackersatVikings	MIN -1.5	MIN -4.5	MIN -1.5	3 pts	GB 22 – 39 MIN	Covered
DolphinsatRaiders	LV -3.5	MIA -1.5	MIA +3.5	5 pts	MIA 13 – 27 LV	Missed
CommandersatEagles	PHI -4.5	PHI -2.5	WSH +4.5	2 pts	WSH 22 – 24 PHI	Covered
CardinalsatChargers	LAC -10.5	LAC -5.5	ARI +10.5	5 pts	ARI 26 – 14 LAC	Covered
CowboysatGiants	DAL -2.5	NYG -3	NYG +2.5	5.5 pts	DAL 20 – 28 NYG	Covered
BroncosatChiefs	KC -3	DEN -4.5	DEN +3	7.5 pts	DEN 10 – 31 KC	Missed